Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
15 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 93¢ · $309K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
🔬
Research candidate
No
19
No 79%
$309.1K
$2.1K
90.2¢ → 92.5¢
+3% since entry · 15 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 93%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
15 of 19 top traders (79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
15 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Late
706h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 MEPP | Noavg 89.7¢ | $85.2K | $87.8K | +$2.6K | 64% 633-352 (985) |
 occasionalAwareness | Noavg 90¢ | $54.6K | $56.1K | +$1.5K | 52% 284-262 (546) |
DR dromedaryyCTR | Yesavg 8.1¢ | $56.5K | $52.4K | $-4.1K | 35% 35-65 (100) |
AV Avamax | Noavg 90.2¢ | $51.0K | $51.7K | +$1.3K | 81% 421-101 (522) |
 MisTKy | Noavg 91.4¢ | $44.0K | $44.5K | +$549.81 | 71% 568-236 (804) |
SQ SquirrelTheMerchant | Noavg 91¢ | $6.5K | $6.6K | +$106.64 | 55% 79-65 (144) |
 tourists | Noavg 87¢ | $4.1K | $4.4K | +$259.28 | 66% 427-222 (649) |
 Car | Noavg 92.5¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$48.03 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 90.3¢ | $969.63 | $993.43 | +$23.81 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
LO Logan.CTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $1.0K | $750 | -$250 | 41% 648-925 (1573) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 90.8¢ | $457.78 | $467.12 | +$9.33 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
TR troimCTR | Yesavg 7¢ | $420 | $450 | +$30 | 36% 397-691 (1088) |
 debased | Noavg 90¢ | $372.15 | $382.49 | +$10.34 | 58% 2317-1682 (3999) |
 Debosnys | Noavg 93¢ | $372 | $370 | -$2 | 89% 1868-225 (2093) |
 archaic | Noavg 91.1¢ | $202.25 | $205.35 | +$3.1 | 85% 1906-339 (2245) |
PU PutsOnPeace<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $91 | $92.5 | +$1.5 | 66% 955-482 (1437) |
 theta-thunberg<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $91 | $92.5 | +$1.5 | 56% 429-337 (766) |
 tetrase<$100 | Noavg 90.2¢ | $18.03 | $18.51 | +$0.48 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.3¢ | $18 | $15 | -$3 | 57% 3069-2356 (5425) |
MEPPInvested
$85,199.95
Value
$87.8K
PnL
+$2.6K
Record
64%
633-352 (985)
occasionalAwarenessInvested
$54,562.87
Value
$56.1K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
52%
284-262 (546)
Invested
$56,482.56
Value
$52.4K
PnL
$-4.1K
Record
35%
35-65 (100)
Invested
$51,024.13
Value
$51.7K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
81%
421-101 (522)
MisTKyInvested
$43,983.49
Value
$44.5K
PnL
+$549.81
Record
71%
568-236 (804)
Invested
$6,469.66
Value
$6.6K
PnL
+$106.64
Record
55%
79-65 (144)
touristsInvested
$4,101.27
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$259.28
Record
66%
427-222 (649)
CarInvested
$1,733
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$48.03
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
Invested
$969.63
Value
$993.43
PnL
+$23.81
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$750
PnL
-$250
Record
41%
648-925 (1573)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$457.78
Value
$467.12
PnL
+$9.33
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
Invested
$420
Value
$450
PnL
+$30
Record
36%
397-691 (1088)
debasedInvested
$372.15
Value
$382.49
PnL
+$10.34
Record
58%
2317-1682 (3999)
DebosnysInvested
$372
Value
$370
PnL
-$2
Record
89%
1868-225 (2093)
archaicInvested
$202.25
Value
$205.35
PnL
+$3.1
Record
85%
1906-339 (2245)
Invested
$91
Value
$92.5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
66%
955-482 (1437)
theta-thunberg<$100Invested
$91
Value
$92.5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
56%
429-337 (766)
tetrase<$100Invested
$18.03
Value
$18.51
PnL
+$0.48
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$18
Value
$15
PnL
-$3
Record
57%
3069-2356 (5425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.