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3C
Consensus PnL $4.9K · win rate 71% (24–10, n=34) · was PM monthly #838 · holds 13 consensus positions
0x3c46ad73...91dd7893Polymarket
🔄Contrarian🎯Sharp🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$4.9K
Record
24W / 10L
Win Rate
71.0%
of 34 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#719
Source
PM monthly #838
Trades
60
Markets
63
Volume
$162.0K
Top consensus positions
13 in listed consensus markets · 10 of 13 on the consensus side (77%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $18K · now 65¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?No $4.0K · now 74¢ · in at 72¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No $2.9K · now 48¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (39% of 57)
- Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes $2.8K · now 78¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (70% of 37)
- Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Yes $2.7K · now 12¢ · in at 12¢with the consensus (67% of 18)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?No $2.4K · now 56¢ · in at 61¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.2K · now 74¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (68% of 45)
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $2.1K · now 71¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (86% of 51)
Specialties
27 settled consensus markets · held side won 81% at an average entry of 69¢- Elections
+19 pts
side won 84% of 19 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +9%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 19%(won 60% of 5)
- 50–70¢: 22%(won 67% of 6)
- 70¢ and up: 56%(won 100% of 15)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.