Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 5 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?

5 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 45¢ · $97K held · ends Nov 4

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 29%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$96.9K

Combined PnL

$13.3K

Smart Money Entry

34.3¢ → 44.5¢

+30% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 17 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$71.3K

Total Shares160,330

Combined PnL+$16.3K

No12 traders

Total Value$25.0K

Total Shares44,516

Combined PnL$-2.9K

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

349h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

32% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (17 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 73% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 76% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 34.5¢	$52.7K	$68.0K	+$15.3K	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
FL flawfence	Noavg 64¢	$12.8K	$11.1K	$-1.7K	46% 271-319 (590)
HE HerrieDavis	Noavg 62.1¢	$6.2K	$5.4K	-$538.37	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
FB fbet	Noavg 60.9¢	$2.6K	$2.4K	-$188.75	57% 21-16 (37)
SB sbimbg	Noavg 64.7¢	$2.8K	$2.4K	-$338.73	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
0X 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR	Yesavg 34.9¢	$1.7K	$2.2K	+$423.4	79% 332-89 (421)
BR brte	Noavg 61¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$135	— 10-6 (16)
SH shiifoo	Noavg 54¢	$714.95	$716.24	+$25.59	59% 3428-2336 (5764)
ChungvicularCTR	Yesavg 32¢	$479.99	$659.99	+$187.5	46% 49-57 (106)
Zaratustra	Noavg 56¢	$559.99	$559.99	+$0	62% 351-214 (565)
PE peepeepooppoop	Noavg 67.2¢	$570.18	$540.96	-$29.22	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
CO Contestable-ParfaitARB<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$351.61	$533.38	+$157.8	38% 20-32 (52)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41¢	$312.46	$339.13	+$160.55
└ No leg	Noavg 56.3¢	$197	$194.25	-$2.75
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 12¢	$120	$440	+$315	40% 704-1061 (1765)
AB ABC12345654321	Noavg 67.8¢	$175.53	$159.59	-$15.93	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 64.7¢	$142.07	$57.84	-$10.4	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73ARB<$100	Noavg 64.1¢	$53.81	$54.39	+$0.58	40% 174-265 (439)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.1¢	$35.32	$30.86	-$2.62
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38¢	$20.32	$23.53	+$3.21
CO cowcat<$100	Noavg 79.2¢	$40.38	$28.56	-$11.56	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
RL RLWG<$100	Noavg 58¢	$14.5	$14	-$0.5	50% 7969-8009 (15978)
GonTanakaCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.2	-$0.03	57% 173-128 (301)

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$52,685.64

Value

$68.0K

PnL

+$15.3K

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

flawfence

Invested

$12,800

Value

$11.1K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

HerrieDavis

Invested

$6,169.51

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$538.37

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

fbet

Invested

$2,590

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$188.75

Record

57%

21-16 (37)

sbimbg

Invested

$2,788.98

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$338.73

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,729.34

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$423.4

Record

79%

332-89 (421)

brte

Invested

$1,830

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$135

Record

—

10-6 (16)

shiifoo

Invested

$714.95

Value

$716.24

PnL

+$25.59

Record

59%

3428-2336 (5764)

ChungvicularCTR

Yes

Invested

$479.99

Value

$659.99

PnL

+$187.5

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

Zaratustra

Invested

$559.99

Value

$559.99

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

351-214 (565)

peepeepooppoop

Invested

$570.18

Value

$540.96

PnL

-$29.22

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

Contestable-ParfaitARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$351.61

Value

$533.38

PnL

+$157.8

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Both legs:

Yes$312.4641¢+$160.55

No$19756.3¢-$2.75

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$120

Value

$440

PnL

+$315

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

ABC12345654321

Invested

$175.53

Value

$159.59

PnL

-$15.93

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

ghorrock

Invested

$142.07

Value

$57.84

PnL

-$10.4

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73ARB<$100

Invested

$53.81

Value

$54.39

PnL

+$0.58

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

Both legs:

No$35.3264.1¢-$2.62

Yes$20.3238¢+$3.21

cowcat<$100

Invested

$40.38

Value

$28.56

PnL

-$11.56

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

RLWG<$100

Invested

$14.5

Value

$14

PnL

-$0.5

Record

50%

7969-8009 (15978)

GonTanakaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.03

Record

57%

173-128 (301)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 17 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

349h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

32% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (17 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 73% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 76% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.5%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$115.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

215.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.