Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 23 of 24 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?

23 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (96%) · Yes at 1.4¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 96%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$599.6

Smart Money Entry

0.9¢ → 1.4¢

+50% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

23 of 24 top traders (96%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)23 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes23 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares124,646

Combined PnL+$616.09

No1 trader

Total Value$98.2

Total Shares99

Combined PnL-$16.49

Yes — 96%No — 4%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

23 traders

Top 2 hold 34%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

186 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

96% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 34% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 14

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 18

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$90.57	$330.11	+$239.54	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
fireponbabylonCTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$57.93	$247.19	+$192.26	43% 370-481 (851)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$177.76	$224.98	+$47.44	38% 567-944 (1511)
0X 0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0	$208.38	+$208.38	64% 154-88 (242)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$153.12	$154.08	-$57.07	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
BigMackyGCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$154	$107.01	-$43.02	20% 108-423 (531)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 99.1¢	$427.55	$98.2	-$16.49	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
EA EatprayloveCTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$103.37	$84.97	-$18.4	57% 766-585 (1351)
DEGENKHANCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$95.87	$63.56	-$32.31	66% 1107-565 (1672)
tetraseCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$47.36	$60.99	+$15.91	61% 839-544 (1383)
AN anoin123CTR<$100	Yes	$57.92	$57.92	+$57.92	47% 476-535 (1011)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$75.86	$54.82	-$25.08	51% 527-509 (1036)
crypto-basenjiCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$10.29	$25.25	+$14.96	37% 176-294 (470)
PU PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$7.93	$21.6	+$13.67	66% 955-482 (1437)
pup1CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$14.24	$13.5	-$0.74	46% 1978-2361 (4339)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.73	$9.91	+$9.18	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
SN SnoorrasonCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.04	$6.08	+$5.63	39% 1181-1881 (3062)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$17.21	$5.67	-$11.55	71% 968-396 (1364)
ImbaferCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$4.07	$3.47	-$0.6	56% 238-189 (427)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$3.8	$2.8	-$1	38% 20-32 (52)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0.1	$1.38	+$1.28	39% 965-1508 (2473)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.76	$0.76	-$0.2	7% 14-187 (201)
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100	Yes	$0.33	$0.33	-$0.09	53% 3726-3240 (6966)
RA ratedCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.17	$0.13	-$0.04	29% 2865-6952 (9817)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$90.57

Value

$330.11

PnL

+$239.54

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

fireponbabylonCTR

Yes

Invested

$57.93

Value

$247.19

PnL

+$192.26

Record

43%

370-481 (851)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$177.76

Value

$224.98

PnL

+$47.44

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR

Yes

Invested

Value

$208.38

PnL

+$208.38

Record

64%

154-88 (242)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$153.12

Value

$154.08

PnL

-$57.07

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

BigMackyGCTR

Yes

Invested

$154

Value

$107.01

PnL

-$43.02

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$427.55

Value

$98.2

PnL

-$16.49

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

EatprayloveCTR

Yes

Invested

$103.37

Value

$84.97

PnL

-$18.4

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

DEGENKHANCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.87

Value

$63.56

PnL

-$32.31

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

tetraseCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.36

Value

$60.99

PnL

+$15.91

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

anoin123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.92

Value

$57.92

PnL

+$57.92

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.86

Value

$54.82

PnL

-$25.08

Record

51%

527-509 (1036)

crypto-basenjiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.29

Value

$25.25

PnL

+$14.96

Record

37%

176-294 (470)

PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.93

Value

$21.6

PnL

+$13.67

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

pup1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.24

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$0.74

Record

46%

1978-2361 (4339)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.73

Value

$9.91

PnL

+$9.18

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

SnoorrasonCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$6.08

PnL

+$5.63

Record

39%

1181-1881 (3062)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.21

Value

$5.67

PnL

-$11.55

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

ImbaferCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.07

Value

$3.47

PnL

-$0.6

Record

56%

238-189 (427)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.8

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$1

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$1.28

Record

39%

965-1508 (2473)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.76

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$0.2

Record

14-187 (201)

YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$0.09

Record

53%

3726-3240 (6966)

ratedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.04

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

23 of 24 top traders (96%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)23 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

23 traders

Top 2 hold 34%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

186 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

96% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 34% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 14

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 18

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.5%

1.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3872.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

3972.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.