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7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 92¢ · $9K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

78.1¢ → 92¢

+18% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 92%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares9,076

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$796.62

Total Shares9,958

Combined PnL$-3.0K

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

2793h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

9 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
4751346	Noavg 85.5¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$137.88	72% 1257-483 (1740)
Bromley86	Noavg 84.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$68.7	90% 728-80 (808)
probability	Noavg 91.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$12.68	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
fireponbabylon	Noavg 43.6¢	$595.6	$1.3K	+$659.85	43% 370-481 (851)
FI firegold	Noavg 90.6¢	$906	$920	+$14	59% 323-224 (547)
SI singularityman	Noavg 82.3¢	$552.36	$617.32	+$64.96	42% 138-193 (331)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 40.7¢	$3.1K	$604.65	$-2.5K	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
George.Smiley	Noavg 53¢	$331.2	$575.31	+$244.12	62% 142-88 (230)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 34.6¢	$484	$112	-$372	36% 397-691 (1088)
theta-thunbergCTR	Yesavg 23.6¢	$199.92	$79.97	-$119.95	56% 429-337 (766)

4751346

Invested

$2,006.67

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$137.88

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

Bromley86

Invested

$1,354.1

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$68.7

Record

90%

728-80 (808)

probability

Invested

$1,427.58

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$12.68

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

fireponbabylon

Invested

$595.6

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$659.85

Record

43%

370-481 (851)

firegold

Invested

$906

Value

$920

PnL

+$14

Record

59%

323-224 (547)

singularityman

Invested

$552.36

Value

$617.32

PnL

+$64.96

Record

42%

138-193 (331)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,078.12

Value

$604.65

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

George.Smiley

Invested

$331.2

Value

$575.31

PnL

+$244.12

Record

62%

142-88 (230)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$484

Value

$112

PnL

-$372

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

theta-thunbergCTR

Yes

Invested

$199.92

Value

$79.97

PnL

-$119.95

Record

56%

429-337 (766)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 92%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

2793h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

9 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.