Consensus PnL -$3.9K · win rate 59% (139–97, n=236) · was PM monthly #960 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-3.9K
Record
139W / 97L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 236 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1240
Source
PM monthly #960
Trades
70
Markets
262
Volume
$600.6K
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 6 on the consensus side (83%)- Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-11-01?No $3.4K · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (61% of 29)
- Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Over $1.7K · now 46¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (73% of 12)
- Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 218.5Under $1.6K · now 44¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (75% of 5)
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Real Madrid CF $692 · now 88¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (59% of 28)
- Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5Under $622 · now 47¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Over)
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 44.5Over $242 · now 44¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (80% of 11)
Specialties
232 settled consensus markets · held side won 66% at an average entry of 67¢- NHL
+4 pts
side won 98% of 44 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +4%
- Soccer
+5 pts
side won 76% of 33 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +8%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 57% of 127 at an average 59¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 17% of 6)
- 30–50¢: 45%(won 38% of 104)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 67% of 21)
- 70¢ and up: 44%(won 97% of 101)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.