Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 54¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 2

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.9K

Combined PnL

$178.9

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 53.5¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares7,292

Combined PnL+$203.61

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,170

Combined PnL-$24.71

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 52.3¢	$9.0K	$9.0K	+$26.48	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.3¢	$4.9K	$5.0K	+$115.68
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.5¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	-$89.2
MA MAGATheeStallion	Overavg 52.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$23.64	57% 261-193 (454)
HI hi774c	Overavg 48.2¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$172.55	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
GO goldmynameCTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.8K	$621.71	-$6.68	60% 146-96 (242)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47.9¢	$395.89	$232.51	-$9.69	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Underavg 49¢	$162.05	$153.68	-$8.37	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 46¢	$80.99	$93.32	+$4.4	58% 10670-7656 (18326)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 49.3¢	$50.37	$53.38	+$3.01	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$1.05	$1.08	+$0.03	49% 1199-1227 (2426)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$8,963.22

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$26.48

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

Both legs:

Over$4,922.6752.3¢+$115.68

Under$4,040.5547.5¢-$89.2

MAGATheeStallion

Over

Invested

$1,999.69

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$23.64

Record

57%

261-193 (454)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$1,567.24

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$172.55

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

goldmynameCTR

Under

Invested

$1,795.4

Value

$621.71

PnL

-$6.68

Record

60%

146-96 (242)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$395.89

Value

$232.51

PnL

-$9.69

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

HerdoniaCTR

Under

Invested

$162.05

Value

$153.68

PnL

-$8.37

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$80.99

Value

$93.32

PnL

+$4.4

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$50.37

Value

$53.38

PnL

+$3.01

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$0.03

Record

49%

1199-1227 (2426)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.