Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 46¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 2

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

-$161.39

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 45.5¢

-5% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,169

Combined PnL-$7.8

Over9 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares6,705

Combined PnL-$153.6

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

77% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 47.7¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	-$28.96	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.7¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$140.24
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.4¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$111.28
MA MAGATheeStallion	Underavg 53¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	-$18.86	57% 261-193 (454)
GO goldmynameCTR	Overavg 47¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$75.6	60% 146-96 (242)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 49¢	$640.92	$588.6	-$52.32	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 48.6¢	$292.97	$274.37	-$18.61	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 48¢	$239.2	$224.25	+$7.47	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
RO rocky42019	Underavg 53¢	$154.01	$159.82	+$5.81	42% 1725-2358 (4083)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 49¢	$152.39	$141.51	-$10.89	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
HE Herdonia<$100	Underavg 50¢	$66.24	$71.49	+$5.25	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$47	$45	-$0.5	53% 11582-10087 (21669)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 48.5¢	$45.2	$44.15	-$2.09	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 48.7¢	$14.6	$13.5	-$0.95	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.28	-$0.13	52% 7503-6793 (14296)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,121.54

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$28.96

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

Both legs:

Over$3,034.3447.7¢-$140.24

Under$1,087.1949.4¢+$111.28

MAGATheeStallion

Under

Invested

$1,999.69

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$18.86

Record

57%

261-193 (454)

goldmynameCTR

Over

Invested

$1,776.6

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$75.6

Record

60%

146-96 (242)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$640.92

Value

$588.6

PnL

-$52.32

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$292.97

Value

$274.37

PnL

-$18.61

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$239.2

Value

$224.25

PnL

+$7.47

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

rocky42019

Under

Invested

$154.01

Value

$159.82

PnL

+$5.81

Record

42%

1725-2358 (4083)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$152.39

Value

$141.51

PnL

-$10.89

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

Herdonia<$100

Under

Invested

$66.24

Value

$71.49

PnL

+$5.25

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47

Value

$45

PnL

-$0.5

Record

53%

11582-10087 (21669)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$45.2

Value

$44.15

PnL

-$2.09

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.6

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$0.95

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$0.13

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

77% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.