Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 26¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 4

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

30.4¢ → 26.1¢

-14% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares29,487

Combined PnL$-1.4K

No1 trader

Total Value$146

Total Shares200

Combined PnL+$7.8

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

463h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

9 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO gotozer0CTR	Yesavg 30.9¢	$3.3K	$2.8K	-$480.66	67% 305-153 (458)
C0 C03BCTR	Yesavg 31.5¢	$2.5K	$1.9K	-$421.16	85% 719-126 (845)
LI lissartterCTR	Yesavg 29.8¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$180.09	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 29.9¢	$987.34	$836.72	-$137.36	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Yesavg 27.9¢	$901.53	$764.35	-$137.18	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
Relaccsed	Noavg 71¢	$142	$146	+$7.8	56% 1213-967 (2180)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$2.26	$1.84	-$0.42	50% 357-357 (714)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$1.55	$1.27	-$0.27	50% 7972-8009 (15981)

gotozer0CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,285.99

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$480.66

Record

67%

305-153 (458)

C03BCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,498.86

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$421.16

Record

85%

719-126 (845)

lissartterCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,346.08

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$180.09

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$987.34

Value

$836.72

PnL

-$137.36

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Yes

Invested

$901.53

Value

$764.35

PnL

-$137.18

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

Relaccsed

Invested

$142

Value

$146

PnL

+$7.8

Record

56%

1213-967 (2180)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.26

Value

$1.84

PnL

-$0.42

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

RLWGCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.27

PnL

-$0.27

Record

50%

7972-8009 (15981)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

463h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

9 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.9%

26.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$258.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

358.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.