Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 71¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 4

Yes71¢No29¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.8K

Combined PnL

$2.9K

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 71¢

+18% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$20.6K

Total Shares29,059

Combined PnL+$2.9K

No1 trader

Total Value$57.9

Total Shares200

Combined PnL-$3.8

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

463h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO gotozer0	Yesavg 60.3¢	$6.7K	$7.9K	+$1.2K	67% 305-153 (458)
C0 C03B	Yesavg 63¢	$4.7K	$5.3K	+$598.3	85% 719-126 (845)
LI lissartter	Yesavg 57.3¢	$2.9K	$3.4K	+$543.68	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 59.3¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$392	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 58.6¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$124.73	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 59.9¢	$239.8	$284.2	+$44.4	38% 20-32 (52)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100	Yesavg 63.1¢	$103.7	$106.71	+$3.01	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63.1¢	$67.37	$75.82	+$9.87
└ No leg	Noavg 39.2¢	$41.82	$30.89	-$6.86
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$61.7	$57.9	-$3.8	57% 3069-2356 (5425)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100	Yesavg 62.4¢	$8.22	$9.05	+$0.83	50% 357-357 (714)

gotozer0

Yes

Invested

$6,708.69

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

67%

305-153 (458)

C03B

Yes

Invested

$4,694.9

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$598.3

Record

85%

719-126 (845)

lissartter

Yes

Invested

$2,859.46

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$543.68

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$1,961.67

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$392

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$1,303.75

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$124.73

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$239.8

Value

$284.2

PnL

+$44.4

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$103.7

Value

$106.71

PnL

+$3.01

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

Both legs:

Yes$67.3763.1¢+$9.87

No$41.8239.2¢-$6.86

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$61.7

Value

$57.9

PnL

-$3.8

Record

57%

3069-2356 (5425)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.22

Value

$9.05

PnL

+$0.83

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

463h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.8%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.