Consensus PnL $57K · win rate 45% (1034–1283, n=2317) · was PM monthly #906 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$57.2K
Record
1034W / 1283L
Win Rate
45.0%
of 2317 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1972
Source
PM monthly #906
Trades
610
Markets
2,399
Volume
$3.0M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 6 on the consensus side (50%)- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Ravens $2.2K · now 54¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (56% of 18)
- Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group ATheMongolz $1.1K · now 48¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Legacy)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $540 · now 20¢ · in at 31¢against the consensus (No)
- Spread: Bengals (-13.5)Titans $105 · now 50¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (Bengals)
- Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $102 · now 8¢ · in at 6¢with the consensus (73% of 15)
- Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?Yes $16 · now 15¢ · in at 15¢with the consensus (79% of 14)
Specialties
1,906 settled consensus markets · held side won 52% at an average entry of 44¢- College Football
+30 pts
side won 74% of 72 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +35%
- Other Sports
+23 pts
side won 69% of 52 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +19%
- Tennis
+19 pts
side won 53% of 80 · avg entry 33¢
ROI +16%
Weakest: Entertainment — held side won 26% of 23 at an average 31¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 18%(won 19% of 352)
- 30–50¢: 41%(won 53% of 785)
- 50–70¢: 37%(won 64% of 699)
- 70¢ and up: 4%(won 87% of 70)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.