Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?

1 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (9%) · No at 94¢ · $8K held · ends Jun 20, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Sun, Jun 20, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 9%

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$272.07

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 11 top traders (9%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares5,000

Combined PnL+$325

Yes10 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares51,021

Combined PnL-$52.93

No — 9%Yes — 91%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

721h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

20 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

9% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1922	Noavg 87¢	$4.3K	$4.7K	+$325	66% 885-454 (1339)
BO borntoolate.ethCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$1.1K	$925.92	-$77.16	75% 315-103 (418)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 8¢	$852.68	$682.16	-$170.53	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
P1 P1kasoCTR	Yesavg 6¢	$550	$600	+$50	63% 754-450 (1204)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 6.6¢	$517.59	$467.99	-$10.55	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR	Yesavg 6¢	$60	$240	+$128.58	60% 1348-884 (2232)
StarMasterCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	$65	$60	-$5	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yes	$47.76	$47.76	+$32.79	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$7.52	$24	+$16.48	57% 3069-2356 (5425)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$68.18	$11.63	-$16.48	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$3	$1.8	-$1.05	74% 2792-1004 (3796)

1922

Invested

$4,350

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$325

Record

66%

885-454 (1339)

borntoolate.ethCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,080.23

Value

$925.92

PnL

-$77.16

Record

75%

315-103 (418)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$852.68

Value

$682.16

PnL

-$170.53

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

P1kasoCTR

Yes

Invested

$550

Value

$600

PnL

+$50

Record

63%

754-450 (1204)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$517.59

Value

$467.99

PnL

-$10.55

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR

Yes

Invested

$60

Value

$240

PnL

+$128.58

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

StarMasterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65

Value

$60

PnL

-$5

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.76

Value

$47.76

PnL

+$32.79

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.52

Value

$24

PnL

+$16.48

Record

57%

3069-2356 (5425)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.18

Value

$11.63

PnL

-$16.48

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

viniiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$1.05

Record

74%

2792-1004 (3796)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 11 top traders (9%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

721h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

20 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

9% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.