Consensus PnL $100K · win rate 82% (265–59, n=324) · hand-picked wallet · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$99.9K
Record
265W / 59L
Win Rate
82.0%
of 324 settled
Batting Avg
71.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#384
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
19,004
Markets
474
Volume
$4.6M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 5 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $75K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No $63K · now 97¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (94% of 31)
- Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?No $33K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?No $29K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?No $12K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (95% of 21)
Specialties
435 settled consensus markets · held side won 84% at an average entry of 81¢- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 94% of 193 · avg entry 89¢
ROI +2%
- Elections
+5 pts
side won 75% of 28 · avg entry 70¢
ROI +6%
- Other Sports
+10 pts
side won 40% of 10 · avg entry 30¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 76% of 91 at an average 78¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 16% of 50)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 38% of 8)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 66% of 32)
- 70¢ and up: 79%(won 97% of 345)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.