Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 98¢ · $90K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$89.6K

Combined PnL

$4.2K

Smart Money Entry

92.4¢ → 97.8¢

+6% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$89.3K

Total Shares91,360

Combined PnL+$4.9K

Yes1 trader

Total Value$275.15

Total Shares12,208

Combined PnL-$724.08

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 89% · 9

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keribit	Noavg 95¢	$32.8K	$32.6K	+$929.81	77% 343-103 (446)
occasionalAwareness	Noavg 90.5¢	$4.4K	$26.9K	+$2.0K	52% 284-262 (546)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	Noavg 90¢	$19.2K	$20.9K	+$1.7K	88% 2229-292 (2521)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 93¢	$929.64	$4.9K	+$237.5	85% 605-108 (713)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 96.5¢	$1.5K	$2.0K	+$55.33	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
Donkov	Noavg 93.7¢	$962.59	$977.49	+$14.9	71% 968-396 (1364)
Slowroasted	Noavg 93¢	$558	$586.5	+$28.5	88% 1990-279 (2269)
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 8.2¢	$999.23	$275.15	-$724.08	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
StudyPrediction	Noavg 89¢	$178	$195.5	+$15	53% 4588-4006 (8594)
GenaTheBondKilIer	Noavg 92¢	$138	$146.63	+$8.63	51% 527-509 (1036)
OL OLOTH<$100	Noavg 97¢	$48.5	$48.88	+$0.38	96% 757-31 (788)
Car<$100	Noavg 92¢	$37.14	$37.24	+$0.1	67% 4165-2026 (6191)

keribit

Invested

$32,817.87

Value

$32.6K

PnL

+$929.81

Record

77%

343-103 (446)

occasionalAwareness

Invested

$4,433.51

Value

$26.9K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

52%

284-262 (546)

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04

Invested

$19,197.43

Value

$20.9K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

88%

2229-292 (2521)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$929.64

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$237.5

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,523.77

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$55.33

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Donkov

Invested

$962.59

Value

$977.49

PnL

+$14.9

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

Slowroasted

Invested

$558

Value

$586.5

PnL

+$28.5

Record

88%

1990-279 (2269)

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$999.23

Value

$275.15

PnL

-$724.08

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

StudyPrediction

Invested

$178

Value

$195.5

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

4588-4006 (8594)

GenaTheBondKilIer

Invested

$138

Value

$146.63

PnL

+$8.63

Record

51%

527-509 (1036)

OLOTH<$100

Invested

$48.5

Value

$48.88

PnL

+$0.38

Record

96%

757-31 (788)

Car<$100

Invested

$37.14

Value

$37.24

PnL

+$0.1

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 89% · 9

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.