Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

29 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold No (94%) · No at 97¢ · $393K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 94%

Total Value

$392.8K

Combined PnL

$28.5K

Smart Money Entry

88.5¢ → 97.1¢

+10% since entry · 29 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

29 of 31 top traders (94%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No29 traders

Total Value$391.4K

Total Shares403,941

Combined PnL+$29.7K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares43,971

Combined PnL$-1.2K

No — 94%Yes — 6%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

29 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

94% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 91% · 11

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 17

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 93% · 27

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DE denizz	Noavg 84.6¢	$148.1K	$157.5K	+$18.5K	68% 597-284 (881)
KE keribit	Noavg 94¢	$67.0K	$63.0K	+$2.0K	77% 343-103 (446)
tetrase	Noavg 92.6¢	$57.0K	$58.7K	+$1.7K	61% 839-544 (1383)
KE kevtp	Noavg 91¢	$36.9K	$38.8K	+$1.8K	80% 227-58 (285)
MEPP	Noavg 88.3¢	$18.8K	$19.4K	+$620.02	64% 633-352 (985)
PI pilimili	Noavg 92¢	$7.8K	$8.2K	+$431.79	62% 151-91 (242)
Talophex	Noavg 91.5¢	$6.3K	$6.6K	+$337.16	91% 929-95 (1024)
DonationsReceiver	Noavg 95.2¢	$5.3K	$5.4K	+$44.45	60% 245-160 (405)
Marco-Rubio	Noavg 82.1¢	$3.0K	$4.8K	+$725	53% 489-440 (929)
4751346	Noavg 93.9¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$154.88	72% 1257-483 (1740)
CO cocococococo	Noavg 77.9¢	$3.4K	$4.2K	+$767.57	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
Ryxon21	Noavg 75.8¢	$3.2K	$4.0K	+$748.87	71% 318-130 (448)
PA Paul973973	Noavg 95¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$66.32	89% 923-118 (1041)
studmuffin6969	Noavg 91¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$122	59% 1027-717 (1744)
TheGreekTraderPM	Noavg 95.5¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$29.2	60% 430-285 (715)
Roflan-ludoman	Noavg 61.6¢	$1.0K	$1.6K	+$597.68	62% 649-396 (1045)
WA wan123	Noavg 65.9¢	$936.32	$1.4K	+$444.04	39% 196-304 (500)
debasedCTR	Yesavg 9.6¢	$2.5K	$1.4K	$-1.2K	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 93.3¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	+$26.26	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
AF aff3	Noavg 96.7¢	$976.99	$979.01	+$4.04	80% 171-44 (215)
KR Krass	Noavg 69.4¢	$621.69	$867.71	+$247.81	74% 452-155 (607)
AL alwaysOn	Noavg 96.4¢	$851.62	$857.82	+$6.2	77% 632-185 (817)
Slowroasted	Noavg 73¢	$456.53	$601.15	+$149.51	88% 1990-279 (2269)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 82.2¢	$476.26	$484.51	+$8.25	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
siick	Noavg 88¢	$367.4	$404.56	+$37.99	57% 768-580 (1348)

denizz

Invested

$148,110.32

Value

$157.5K

PnL

+$18.5K

Record

68%

597-284 (881)

keribit

Invested

$67,038.14

Value

$63.0K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

77%

343-103 (446)

tetrase

Invested

$57,020.05

Value

$58.7K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

kevtp

Invested

$36,921.01

Value

$38.8K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

80%

227-58 (285)

MEPP

Invested

$18,759.96

Value

$19.4K

PnL

+$620.02

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

pilimili

Invested

$7,789.12

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$431.79

Record

62%

151-91 (242)

Talophex

Invested

$6,259.38

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$337.16

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

DonationsReceiver

Invested

$5,338.36

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$44.45

Record

60%

245-160 (405)

Marco-Rubio

Invested

$2,972.07

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$725

Record

53%

489-440 (929)

4751346

Invested

$4,694.42

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$154.88

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

cocococococo

Invested

$3,395.68

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$767.57

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

Ryxon21

Invested

$3,249.07

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$748.87

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

Paul973973

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$66.32

Record

89%

923-118 (1041)

studmuffin6969

Invested

$1,820

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$122

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

TheGreekTraderPM

Invested

$1,742.67

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$29.2

Record

60%

430-285 (715)

Roflan-ludoman

Invested

$1,038.28

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$597.68

Record

62%

649-396 (1045)

wan123

Invested

$936.32

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$444.04

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

debasedCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,541.08

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,184.38

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$26.26

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

aff3

Invested

$976.99

Value

$979.01

PnL

+$4.04

Record

80%

171-44 (215)

Krass

Invested

$621.69

Value

$867.71

PnL

+$247.81

Record

74%

452-155 (607)

alwaysOn

Invested

$851.62

Value

$857.82

PnL

+$6.2

Record

77%

632-185 (817)

Slowroasted

Invested

$456.53

Value

$601.15

PnL

+$149.51

Record

88%

1990-279 (2269)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$476.26

Value

$484.51

PnL

+$8.25

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

siick

Invested

$367.4

Value

$404.56

PnL

+$37.99

Record

57%

768-580 (1348)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

29 of 31 top traders (94%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

29 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

94% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 91% · 11

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 17

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 93% · 27

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.