Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 96¢ · $71K held · ends Nov 3

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$71.1K

Combined PnL

$41.3K

Smart Money Entry

95.3¢ → 96.3¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$52.0K

Total Shares1,510,220

Combined PnL+$41.0K

No6 traders

Total Value$19.0K

Total Shares19,692

Combined PnL+$290.8

Yes — 45%No — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

106h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 10

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$9.6K	$49.4K	+$39.9K	43% 561-738 (1299)
GoriIIa	Noavg 94.7¢	$13.2K	$13.4K	+$268.94	73% 229-85 (314)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 97.7¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	-$42	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
ET ethBELIVERCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$1.4K	$2.3K	+$993.71	40% 25-37 (62)
CO cocos228	Noavg 93.1¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$37.21	72% 68-27 (95)
LI lissartter	Noavg 95.8¢	$428.94	$431.85	+$2.91	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
TimeTraveler	Noavg 96¢	$212.47	$235.66	+$23.69	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$71.71	$131.41	+$58.96	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100	Yes	$81.83	$81.83	+$64.91	56% 973-770 (1743)
MI milkteabobaCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$27.82	$35.16	+$7.34	69% 38-17 (55)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$33.57	$33.62	+$0.05	76% 11354-3525 (14879)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,562.57

Value

$49.4K

PnL

+$39.9K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

GoriIIa

Invested

$13,199.48

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$268.94

Record

73%

229-85 (314)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$3,908

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$42

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

ethBELIVERCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,427.61

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$993.71

Record

40%

25-37 (62)

cocos228

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$37.21

Record

72%

68-27 (95)

lissartter

Invested

$428.94

Value

$431.85

PnL

+$2.91

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

TimeTraveler

Invested

$212.47

Value

$235.66

PnL

+$23.69

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$71.71

Value

$131.41

PnL

+$58.96

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

RememberAmalekCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.83

Value

$81.83

PnL

+$64.91

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

milkteabobaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.82

Value

$35.16

PnL

+$7.34

Record

69%

38-17 (55)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$33.57

Value

$33.62

PnL

+$0.05

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

106h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 10

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.4%

96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.71

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.