Consensus PnL -$45K · win rate 63% (210–125, n=335) · PM monthly #685 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-45.1K
Record
210W / 125L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 335 settled
Batting Avg
57.1%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1023
Source
PM monthly #685
Trades
482
Markets
382
Volume
$1.9M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 4 on the consensus side (75%)- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $14K · now 94¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (40% of 36)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $3.1K · now 66¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (68% of 131)
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Yes $403 · now 7¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $37 · now 94¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (40% of 30)
Specialties
356 settled consensus markets · held side won 60% at an average entry of 59¢- Geopolitics
+11 pts
side won 57% of 44 · avg entry 45¢
ROI 0%
- Crypto
+5 pts
side won 61% of 28 · avg entry 56¢
ROI −1%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 54% of 94 at an average 61¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 14% of 56)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 36% of 72)
- 50–70¢: 29%(won 62% of 103)
- 70¢ and up: 35%(won 92% of 125)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.