Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

13 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold No (42%) · No at 94¢ · $164K held · ended Oct 28

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 42%

Total Value

$164.4K

Combined PnL

-$140.12

Smart Money Entry

97.5¢ → 94.2¢

-3% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 31 top traders (42%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$153.2K

Total Shares162,251

Combined PnL$-6.5K

Yes18 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares203,200

Combined PnL+$6.3K

No — 42%Yes — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

42% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 12

Diverging

sharpNo 75% · 12

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 62% · 13

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 25

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AF afdafdafdafdafd	Noavg 98.2¢	$42.6K	$40.9K	$-2.1K	73% 196-73 (269)
TH thoodr	Noavg 97.6¢	$42.3K	$40.9K	$-1.8K	96% 631-24 (655)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Noavg 98.2¢	$23.3K	$22.3K	$-1.0K	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
AF aff3	Noavg 95.8¢	$17.7K	$17.4K	-$568.9	80% 171-44 (215)
scottilicious	Noavg 96¢	$11.5K	$11.2K	-$211.47	82% 945-201 (1146)
HI hideo	Noavg 97¢	$10.0K	$9.7K	-$370.92	76% 253-81 (334)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 98.1¢	$4.9K	$4.7K	-$210	85% 605-108 (713)
CA cashyCTR	Yesavg 2.3¢	$913.69	$3.0K	+$2.1K	71% 611-250 (861)
57 57284910	Noavg 97.7¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	-$118.75	100% 23-0 (23)
MA Marioy	Noavg 98¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$112.5	81% 250-58 (308)
PI pilimiliCTR	Yesavg 3.8¢	$1.3K	$2.2K	+$932.45	62% 151-91 (242)
FL flawfenceCTR	Yesavg 3.6¢	$1.0K	$1.6K	+$619.53	46% 271-319 (590)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 1.8¢	$372.15	$1.3K	+$932.22	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
WA wan123CTR	Yesavg 3¢	$382.09	$738.7	+$356.61	39% 196-304 (500)
debasedCTR	Yesavg 3.7¢	$95.44	$584.15	+$229.11	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 2.3¢	$137.79	$410.75	+$265.36	36% 190-333 (523)
IM immanuelcanCTR	Yesavg 2.6¢	$125.12	$354.18	+$229.06	53% 906-789 (1695)
LI liriovertisCTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$14.87	$320.31	+$227.13	24% 5-16 (21)
DE denizzCTR	Yesavg 3.2¢	$112.2	$288.8	+$176.61	68% 597-284 (881)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 3.7¢	$84.83	$179.31	+$94.47	68% 2074-957 (3031)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 94.6¢	$99.85	$100	-$0.1	38% 20-32 (52)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$39.33	$82.64	+$43.31	59% 3428-2336 (5764)
BT BTCGambler247CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$2.5	$55	+$52.5	47% 217-240 (457)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 96.1¢	$1.4K	$50.64	-$7.02	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
NO notgoodluck<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$38.17	$36.66	-$1.71	61% 212-133 (345)

afdafdafdafdafd

Invested

$42,632.31

Value

$40.9K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

73%

196-73 (269)

thoodr

Invested

$42,284.47

Value

$40.9K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Invested

$23,268.7

Value

$22.3K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

aff3

Invested

$17,669.23

Value

$17.4K

PnL

-$568.9

Record

80%

171-44 (215)

scottilicious

Invested

$11,460.17

Value

$11.2K

PnL

-$211.47

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

hideo

Invested

$10,000

Value

$9.7K

PnL

-$370.92

Record

76%

253-81 (334)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$4,905

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$210

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

cashyCTR

Yes

Invested

$913.69

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

71%

611-250 (861)

57284910

Invested

$3,053.12

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$118.75

Record

100%

23-0 (23)

Marioy

Invested

$2,940

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$112.5

Record

81%

250-58 (308)

pilimiliCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,266.44

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$932.45

Record

62%

151-91 (242)

flawfenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,015.6

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$619.53

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$372.15

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$932.22

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

wan123CTR

Yes

Invested

$382.09

Value

$738.7

PnL

+$356.61

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

debasedCTR

Yes

Invested

$95.44

Value

$584.15

PnL

+$229.11

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$137.79

Value

$410.75

PnL

+$265.36

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

immanuelcanCTR

Yes

Invested

$125.12

Value

$354.18

PnL

+$229.06

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

liriovertisCTR

Yes

Invested

$14.87

Value

$320.31

PnL

+$227.13

Record

24%

5-16 (21)

denizzCTR

Yes

Invested

$112.2

Value

$288.8

PnL

+$176.61

Record

68%

597-284 (881)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$84.83

Value

$179.31

PnL

+$94.47

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$99.85

Value

$100

PnL

-$0.1

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.33

Value

$82.64

PnL

+$43.31

Record

59%

3428-2336 (5764)

BTCGambler247CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$55

PnL

+$52.5

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

ghorrock

Invested

$1,429.3

Value

$50.64

PnL

-$7.02

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

notgoodluck<$100

Invested

$38.17

Value

$36.66

PnL

-$1.71

Record

61%

212-133 (345)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 31 top traders (42%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

42% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 12

Diverging

sharpNo 75% · 12

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 62% · 13

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 25

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.