Will Torino FC win on 2026-11-01?

15 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 93¢ · $27K held · ended Nov 1

Yes7¢No93¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.9K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

74.1¢ → 93¢

+26% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 17 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$17.3K

Total Shares18,319

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares4,559

Combined PnL-$109.16

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 71.8¢	$6.5K	$6.7K	+$255.43	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Noavg 75¢	$5.5K	$5.4K	-$130.07	55% 3009-2439 (5448)
└ No leg	Noavg 75¢	$3.9K	$3.8K	-$75.9
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.4¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$54.16
RN1	Noavg 76.5¢	$3.4K	$4.0K	+$610.04	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$4.9K	$3.1K	$-1.8K	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
└ No leg	Noavg 71.8¢	$1.6K	$2.1K	+$474.75
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25¢	$3.2K	$967.28	$-2.3K
oieshfn345	Noavg 75.4¢	$2.3K	$2.8K	+$479.4	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 72¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$60	67% 2646-1285 (3931)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Yesavg 29.7¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$95.54	65% 1758-962 (2720)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 82.3¢	$744.24	$776.9	+$32.66	52% 13929-12704 (26633)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 73.4¢	$286	$330.89	+$44.89	61% 13793-8671 (22464)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 72¢	$147.41	$151.6	+$4.19	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
HRTrading	Noavg 83.4¢	$122.06	$102.86	-$19.19	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 72¢	$30.97	$37.86	+$1.1	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
LM LmmmxYyqXz5221u<$100	Noavg 72¢	$33.84	$34.78	+$0.94	— 3-6 (9)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 88¢	$36.91	$34.69	-$2.22	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 87¢	$31.45	$32.35	+$0.9	58% 10670-7656 (18326)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.2¢	$44.27	$30.66	-$13.61	58% 18783-13847 (32630)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 91¢	$9.1	$9.05	-$0.05	54% 6427-5413 (11840)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Noavg 76¢	$7.6	$7.35	-$0.25	51% 1529-1481 (3010)
RO Rocky31<$100	Noavg 82¢	$4.1	$4.48	+$0.38	74% 1681-594 (2275)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$6,472

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$255.43

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Anon455ARB<$100

Invested

$5,494.46

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$130.07

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

Both legs:

No$3,890.9275¢-$75.9

Yes$1,603.5427.4¢-$54.16

RN1

Invested

$3,397.47

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$610.04

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$4,872.3

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

Both legs:

No$1,645.2171.8¢+$474.75

Yes$3,227.0925¢$-2.3K

oieshfn345

Invested

$2,323.59

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$479.4

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,160

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$60

Record

67%

2646-1285 (3931)

darkumbreon88CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,268.9

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$95.54

Record

65%

1758-962 (2720)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$744.24

Value

$776.9

PnL

+$32.66

Record

52%

13929-12704 (26633)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$286

Value

$330.89

PnL

+$44.89

Record

61%

13793-8671 (22464)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$147.41

Value

$151.6

PnL

+$4.19

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

HRTrading

Invested

$122.06

Value

$102.86

PnL

-$19.19

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$30.97

Value

$37.86

PnL

+$1.1

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

LmmmxYyqXz5221u<$100

Invested

$33.84

Value

$34.78

PnL

+$0.94

Record

—

3-6 (9)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$36.91

Value

$34.69

PnL

-$2.22

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$31.45

Value

$32.35

PnL

+$0.9

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.27

Value

$30.66

PnL

-$13.61

Record

58%

18783-13847 (32630)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$9.1

Value

$9.05

PnL

-$0.05

Record

54%

6427-5413 (11840)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Invested

$7.6

Value

$7.35

PnL

-$0.25

Record

51%

1529-1481 (3010)

Rocky31<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.48

PnL

+$0.38

Record

74%

1681-594 (2275)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 17 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.