Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 95¢ · $133K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$133.2K

Combined PnL

$37.2K

Smart Money Entry

66.8¢ → 95¢

+42% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 95%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$132.4K

Total Shares139,338

Combined PnL+$40.5K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$822.9

Total Shares16,458

Combined PnL$-3.3K

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CQ cqs	Noavg 62¢	$52.5K	$82.7K	+$30.2K	65% 228-122 (350)
KR KrackenSruster	Noavg 73.3¢	$27.4K	$35.2K	+$7.9K	66% 487-255 (742)
How.Dare.You	Noavg 86.9¢	$3.8K	$4.2K	+$355.59	72% 815-323 (1138)
FA fastviking	Noavg 81¢	$3.2K	$3.8K	+$560.01	69% 33-15 (48)
vacoolaaa	Noavg 56.8¢	$850.2	$1.4K	+$572.9	68% 124-59 (183)
VO vovatoxic	Noavg 67.5¢	$1,000	$1.4K	+$390.98	49% 70-74 (144)
SwissMiss	Noavg 70¢	$904.63	$1.2K	+$323.08	66% 476-245 (721)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 90.3¢	$640.87	$1.2K	+$136.55	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
AL alwaysOn	Noavg 89¢	$477.71	$489.14	+$11.44	77% 632-185 (817)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Noavg 91¢	$399.96	$417.58	+$17.58	69% 156-69 (225)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 29.2¢	$2.3K	$407.03	$-1.9K	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
XieGuangKun	Noavg 58.9¢	$219.74	$332.03	+$126.95	51% 367-349 (716)
OL ololololololololoCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$13.89	$242.02	$-1.1K	35% 41-77 (118)
CarCTR	Yesavg 16.3¢	$568.16	$173.85	-$394.29	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
Donny.T<$100	Noavg 92¢	$9.2	$9.5	+$0.3	72% 484-187 (671)

cqs

Invested

$52,511.87

Value

$82.7K

PnL

+$30.2K

Record

65%

228-122 (350)

KrackenSruster

Invested

$27,376.13

Value

$35.2K

PnL

+$7.9K

Record

66%

487-255 (742)

How.Dare.You

Invested

$3,808.41

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$355.59

Record

72%

815-323 (1138)

fastviking

Invested

$3,240

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$560.01

Record

69%

33-15 (48)

vacoolaaa

Invested

$850.2

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$572.9

Record

68%

124-59 (183)

vovatoxic

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$390.98

Record

49%

70-74 (144)

SwissMiss

Invested

$904.63

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$323.08

Record

66%

476-245 (721)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$640.87

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$136.55

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

alwaysOn

Invested

$477.71

Value

$489.14

PnL

+$11.44

Record

77%

632-185 (817)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Invested

$399.96

Value

$417.58

PnL

+$17.58

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,286.21

Value

$407.03

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

XieGuangKun

Invested

$219.74

Value

$332.03

PnL

+$126.95

Record

51%

367-349 (716)

ololololololololoCTR

Yes

Invested

$13.89

Value

$242.02

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

35%

41-77 (118)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$568.16

Value

$173.85

PnL

-$394.29

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

Donny.T<$100

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

72%

484-187 (671)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 95%

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.0%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.