onekey02

• Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $1.0M · now 98¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
• Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $327K · now 98¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (94% of 36)
• Trump out as President before 2027?No $259K · now 97¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (90% of 51)
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $111K · now 98¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (85% of 40)
• NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No $57K · now 89¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (67% of 51)
• China x Japan military clash before 2027?No $23K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (86% of 22)
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes $11K · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (69% of 67)
• China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No $5.4K · now 81¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (71% of 18)

No topic with 10 or more settled markets where onekey02's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.

Weakest: Mentions — held side won 100% of 219 at an average 100¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.

Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.