China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 81¢ · $125K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
No
17
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$125.0K
$14.5K
68.8¢ → 80.5¢
+17% since entry · 12 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 81%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
12 of 17 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
12 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Late
2313h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SL SlenderMan | Noavg 67.5¢ | $64.2K | $75.4K | +$11.1K | 72% 257-102 (359) |
 Valen9 | Noavg 69.6¢ | $13.2K | $15.2K | +$2.0K | 60% 407-274 (681) |
 Warren-Buffett | Noavg 69.9¢ | $11.8K | $12.2K | +$1.5K | 65% 862-465 (1327) |
ON onekey02 | Noavg 80.3¢ | $5.4K | $5.4K | +$16.49 | 98% 415-10 (425) |
 aenews2CTR | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $5.4K | $3.7K | $-1.7K | 60% 1773-1174 (2947) |
 zxdfbdfgngcxv | Noavg 67.8¢ | $2.4K | $2.8K | +$431.07 | 82% 1758-394 (2152) |
 GohstCTR | Yesavg 11.6¢ | $1.4K | $2.4K | +$999.16 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
 scottxia1988 | Noavg 69.7¢ | $2.0K | $2.3K | +$292.85 | 78% 178-49 (227) |
 CarCTR | Yesavg 25.5¢ | $1.8K | $1.3K | -$379.58 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
 PaddyAlphaARB<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$50.41 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 71¢ | $669.84 | $755.21 | +$80.22 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 21¢ | $549.26 | $522.87 | -$29.81 | |
 -Yang- | Noavg 71.8¢ | $794.26 | $884.73 | +$90.47 | 82% 275-61 (336) |
 GollumGekko | Noavg 70.7¢ | $416.09 | $467.98 | +$51.9 | 68% 2074-958 (3032) |
 tetraseCTR | Yesavg 25.9¢ | $597.16 | $459.39 | -$136.46 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
BI BikesAreTheBikes | Noavg 69.4¢ | $360.12 | $410.19 | +$124.89 | 39% 1781-2832 (4613) |
 randomWalkingShrimp | Noavg 70.5¢ | $320.75 | $360.29 | +$39.54 | 77% 1204-366 (1570) |
 cambridgeisaac | Noavg 73.1¢ | $206.55 | $226.06 | +$19.52 | 57% 1114-837 (1951) |
RI Richidd | Noavg 70¢ | $140 | $161 | +$21 | 46% 47-56 (103) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 24.9¢ | $153.34 | $145.14 | -$8.2 | 36% 16072-28083 (44155) |
Invested
$64,150
Value
$75.4K
PnL
+$11.1K
Record
72%
257-102 (359)
Valen9Invested
$13,219.99
Value
$15.2K
PnL
+$2.0K
Record
60%
407-274 (681)
Warren-BuffettInvested
$11,812.76
Value
$12.2K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
65%
862-465 (1327)
Invested
$5,383.81
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$16.49
Record
98%
415-10 (425)
aenews2CTRInvested
$5,434.2
Value
$3.7K
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
60%
1773-1174 (2947)
zxdfbdfgngcxvInvested
$2,386.28
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$431.07
Record
82%
1758-394 (2152)
GohstCTRInvested
$1,373.78
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$999.16
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
scottxia1988Invested
$1,987.12
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$292.85
Record
78%
178-49 (227)
CarCTRInvested
$1,819.14
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$379.58
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
PaddyAlphaARB<$100Invested
$1,227.68
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$50.41
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
Both legs:
-Yang-Invested
$794.26
Value
$884.73
PnL
+$90.47
Record
82%
275-61 (336)
GollumGekkoInvested
$416.09
Value
$467.98
PnL
+$51.9
Record
68%
2074-958 (3032)
tetraseCTRInvested
$597.16
Value
$459.39
PnL
-$136.46
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
Invested
$360.12
Value
$410.19
PnL
+$124.89
Record
39%
1781-2832 (4613)
randomWalkingShrimpInvested
$320.75
Value
$360.29
PnL
+$39.54
Record
77%
1204-366 (1570)
cambridgeisaacInvested
$206.55
Value
$226.06
PnL
+$19.52
Record
57%
1114-837 (1951)
Invested
$140
Value
$161
PnL
+$21
Record
46%
47-56 (103)
Invested
$153.34
Value
$145.14
PnL
-$8.2
Record
36%
16072-28083 (44155)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.