Consensus PnL $45K · win rate 53% (350–305, n=655) · PM monthly #299 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$44.8K
Record
350W / 305L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 655 settled
Batting Avg
76.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1559
Source
PM monthly #299
Trades
549
Markets
909
Volume
$1.4M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 5 on the consensus side (60%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ETUp $6.4K · now 69¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (62% of 35)
- Spread: Molde FK (-1.5)SK Brann $1.5K · now 99¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (38% of 13)
- Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-11-01?No $850 · now 89¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (78% of 29)
- Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Nuno Borges vs Alex MolcanNuno Borges $689 · now 0¢ · in at 59¢against the consensus (Alex Molcan)
- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?Yes $553 · now 43¢ · in at 40¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
311 settled consensus markets · held side won 97% at an average entry of 57¢- Esports
+45 pts
side won 98% of 57 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +45%
- Tennis
+46 pts
side won 100% of 31 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +40%
- Soccer
+38 pts
side won 100% of 57 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +47%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 71% of 14)
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 96% of 81)
- 50–70¢: 50%(won 98% of 154)
- 70¢ and up: 20%(won 100% of 62)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.