Spread: Molde FK (-1.5)

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold SK Brann (38%) · SK Brann at 99¢ · $32K held · ended Nov 1

Molde FK1¢SK Brann99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

SK Brann

Consensus Traders

SK Brann 38%

Total Value

$31.8K

Combined PnL

-$345.51

Smart Money Entry

85.9¢ → 98.9¢

+15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSK Brann at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SK Brann

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Molde FK1%

SK Brann99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

SK Brann5 traders

Total Value$29.3K

Total Shares33,927

Combined PnL+$180.13

Molde FK8 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares20,595

Combined PnL-$525.64

SK Brann — 38%Molde FK — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on SK Brann. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMolde FK 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpSK Brann 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSK Brann 50% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Molde FK 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FA fakeky	SK Brannavg 87.2¢	$17.5K	$17.3K	-$143.92	75% 44-15 (59)
QSQL	SK Brannavg 84.4¢	$8.6K	$8.8K	+$211.56	57% 13-10 (23)
AD adururu	SK Brannavg 83¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$98.42	53% 388-341 (729)
OX oxe78sh4w98	SK Brannavg 82.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$10.7	53% 456-407 (863)
RN1CTR	Molde FKavg 14.5¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$314.1	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Molde FKavg 16.3¢	$693.8	$574.53	-$119.27	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Molde FKavg 14.5¢	$339.21	$316.74	-$22.47	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
FO foooool<$100	SK Brannavg 82.6¢	$71.71	$75.08	+$3.37	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Molde FKavg 11.1¢	$55.39	$67.32	+$11.93	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Molde FKavg 14.2¢	$105.16	$34.28	-$70.88	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Molde FKavg 13¢	$13	$13.5	+$0.5	63% 1200-693 (1893)
poshposhCTR<$100	Molde FKavg 10.3¢	$6.91	$9.04	+$2.14	58% 10670-7656 (18326)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Molde FKavg 16¢	$14.29	$0.8	-$13.48	53% 5640-5054 (10694)

fakeky

SK Brann

Invested

$17,488.1

Value

$17.3K

PnL

-$143.92

Record

75%

44-15 (59)

QSQL

SK Brann

Invested

$8,611

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$211.56

Record

57%

13-10 (23)

adururu

SK Brann

Invested

$1,499.28

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$98.42

Record

53%

388-341 (729)

oxe78sh4w98

SK Brann

Invested

$1,479.03

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$10.7

Record

53%

456-407 (863)

RN1CTR

Molde FK

Invested

$1,535.68

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$314.1

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Molde FK

Invested

$693.8

Value

$574.53

PnL

-$119.27

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

LuckyLooCTR

Molde FK

Invested

$339.21

Value

$316.74

PnL

-$22.47

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

foooool<$100

SK Brann

Invested

$71.71

Value

$75.08

PnL

+$3.37

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Molde FK

Invested

$55.39

Value

$67.32

PnL

+$11.93

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

UpTheBluesCTR

Molde FK

Invested

$105.16

Value

$34.28

PnL

-$70.88

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Molde FK

Invested

$13

Value

$13.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

63%

1200-693 (1893)

poshposhCTR<$100

Molde FK

Invested

$6.91

Value

$9.04

PnL

+$2.14

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Molde FK

Invested

$14.29

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$13.48

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

Research grade

NeutralSK Brann at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

SK Brann

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on SK Brann. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMolde FK 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpSK Brann 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSK Brann 50% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Molde FK 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SK Brann wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.