Curitiba: Alice Tubello vs Julia Grabher

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Julia Grabher (56%) · Julia Grabher at 77¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 8

Alice Tubello23¢Julia Grabher77¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Julia Grabher

Consensus Traders

Julia Grabher 56%

Total Value

$14.0K

Combined PnL

$211.37

Smart Money Entry

81.7¢ → 76.8¢

-6% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralJulia Grabher at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Julia Grabher

9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Alice Tubello23%

Julia Grabher77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Julia Grabher9 traders

Total Value$13.3K

Total Shares14,988

Combined PnL+$116.65

Alice Tubello7 traders

Total Value$683.83

Total Shares1,328

Combined PnL+$94.72

Julia Grabher — 56%Alice Tubello — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Julia Grabheravg 83.3¢	$6.7K	$6.8K	+$94.48	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
RN1	Julia Grabheravg 79.2¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$189.63	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
TH thestingsnake	Julia Grabheravg 89.1¢	$2.2K	$1.9K	-$102.21	60% 4104-2765 (6869)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Julia Grabheravg 80.1¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$166.08	52% 13929-12704 (26633)
OM omnibus-076daa	Julia Grabheravg 59.6¢	$498.13	$655.82	+$157.69	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
1L 1lovejump	Julia Grabheravg 78.3¢	$1.0K	$321.53	-$63.82	53% 674-597 (1271)
0xheavy888CTR	Alice Tubelloavg 44.5¢	$163.35	$195.65	+$31.91	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Alice Tubelloavg 45¢	$139.1	$170.01	+$30.91	54% 732-617 (1349)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Alice Tubelloavg 44.3¢	$128.94	$159.91	+$3.35	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Alice Tubelloavg 43¢	$104.23	$133.31	+$23.03	58% 4067-2890 (6957)
PA pauleta23<$100	Julia Grabheravg 77.3¢	$23.65	$29.53	+$5.88	67% 23466-11821 (35287)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 6.8¢	$6.92	$17.33	+$10.4	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
tradecraft<$100	Julia Grabheravg 71.3¢	$8.46	$9.83	+$1.37	51% 6078-5799 (11877)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Julia Grabheravg 50¢	$10	$4.5	-$0.3	85% 5885-1004 (6889)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 37.7¢	$6.7	$4.12	-$2.58	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 58¢	$5.8	$3.5	-$2.3	51% 1529-1481 (3010)

UpTheBlues

Julia Grabher

Invested

$6,733.46

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$94.48

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

RN1

Julia Grabher

Invested

$1,790.22

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$189.63

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

thestingsnake

Julia Grabher

Invested

$2,189.56

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$102.21

Record

60%

4104-2765 (6869)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Julia Grabher

Invested

$1,798.27

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$166.08

Record

52%

13929-12704 (26633)

omnibus-076daa

Julia Grabher

Invested

$498.13

Value

$655.82

PnL

+$157.69

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

1lovejump

Julia Grabher

Invested

$1,021.03

Value

$321.53

PnL

-$63.82

Record

53%

674-597 (1271)

0xheavy888CTR

Alice Tubello

Invested

$163.35

Value

$195.65

PnL

+$31.91

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

pltrkr111CTR

Alice Tubello

Invested

$139.1

Value

$170.01

PnL

+$30.91

Record

54%

732-617 (1349)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Alice Tubello

Invested

$128.94

Value

$159.91

PnL

+$3.35

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Bagwell306CTR

Alice Tubello

Invested

$104.23

Value

$133.31

PnL

+$23.03

Record

58%

4067-2890 (6957)

pauleta23<$100

Julia Grabher

Invested

$23.65

Value

$29.53

PnL

+$5.88

Record

67%

23466-11821 (35287)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$6.92

Value

$17.33

PnL

+$10.4

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

tradecraft<$100

Julia Grabher

Invested

$8.46

Value

$9.83

PnL

+$1.37

Record

51%

6078-5799 (11877)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Julia Grabher

Invested

$10

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.3

Record

85%

5885-1004 (6889)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$6.7

Value

$4.12

PnL

-$2.58

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$5.8

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$2.3

Record

51%

1529-1481 (3010)

Research grade

NeutralJulia Grabher at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Julia Grabher

9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Julia Grabher wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.6%

76.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.