Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 82¢ · $28K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
13
No 54%
$28.4K
$-2.3K
75.4¢ → 82¢
+9% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
62 consensus flips
54% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL plumbis | Noavg 74.6¢ | $14.9K | $16.4K | +$1.5K | 57% 51-39 (90) |
MI MinevaJCTR | Yesavg 30.5¢ | $9.1K | $5.1K | $-3.7K | 57% 1048-784 (1832) |
 zxdfbdfgngcxv | Noavg 76.3¢ | $3.6K | $3.6K | +$73.07 | 82% 1758-394 (2152) |
 Basquetipster | Noavg 78¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$80.03 | 68% 1674-770 (2444) |
 4751346 | Noavg 80.2¢ | $628.9 | $668.63 | +$39.74 | 72% 1257-483 (1740) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 80.2¢ | $435 | $410 | -$25 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
 aenews2CTR | Yesavg 30.8¢ | $571.07 | $334.04 | -$237.03 | 60% 1773-1174 (2947) |
 paddaa<$100 | Noavg 73.1¢ | $84.9 | $95.2 | +$10.3 | 56% 836-645 (1481) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.9¢ | $23.75 | $67.82 | -$24.56 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
 clazzy1<$100 | Noavg 73.2¢ | $52.64 | $58.97 | +$6.33 | 62% 413-249 (662) |
IN insideroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $28 | $17 | -$9 | 76% 291-93 (384) |
 nicoco89CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.2¢ | $17.85 | $10.26 | -$7.59 | 65% 1075-583 (1658) |
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.9¢ | $10.06 | $9.57 | -$0.49 | 69% 404-180 (584) |
Invested
$14,928.25
Value
$16.4K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
57%
51-39 (90)
Invested
$9,076.85
Value
$5.1K
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
57%
1048-784 (1832)
zxdfbdfgngcxvInvested
$3,565.95
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$73.07
Record
82%
1758-394 (2152)
BasquetipsterInvested
$1,560.41
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$80.03
Record
68%
1674-770 (2444)
4751346Invested
$628.9
Value
$668.63
PnL
+$39.74
Record
72%
1257-483 (1740)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$435
Value
$410
PnL
-$25
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
aenews2CTRInvested
$571.07
Value
$334.04
PnL
-$237.03
Record
60%
1773-1174 (2947)
paddaa<$100Invested
$84.9
Value
$95.2
PnL
+$10.3
Record
56%
836-645 (1481)
Invested
$23.75
Value
$67.82
PnL
-$24.56
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
clazzy1<$100Invested
$52.64
Value
$58.97
PnL
+$6.33
Record
62%
413-249 (662)
Invested
$28
Value
$17
PnL
-$9
Record
76%
291-93 (384)
nicoco89CTR<$100Invested
$17.85
Value
$10.26
PnL
-$7.59
Record
65%
1075-583 (1658)
Invested
$10.06
Value
$9.57
PnL
-$0.49
Record
69%
404-180 (584)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.