Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 98¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 3

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 79%

Total Value

$16.7K

Combined PnL

-$348.58

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 98.4¢

+2% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$16.0K

Total Shares16,267

Combined PnL+$242.63

Yes3 traders

Total Value$751.83

Total Shares41,769

Combined PnL-$591.21

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

4576h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 10

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 96.5¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$102.44	77% 1408-416 (1824)
elmcap2	Noavg 97.1¢	$5.9K	$5.8K	+$70.3	89% 1665-205 (1870)
QM QMG-SCALAR	Noavg 97.8¢	$779.4	$783.35	+$3.96	75% 116-39 (155)
KU kukubaja	Noavg 98.2¢	$765.89	$766.91	+$0.63	84% 516-99 (615)
KE Kevindoto	Noavg 95¢	$726.16	$750.99	+$24.83	80% 437-110 (547)
Donny.T	Noavg 95.1¢	$675.32	$697.93	+$22.61	72% 484-187 (671)
-Dominus-	Noavg 97¢	$679	$688.1	+$8.75	69% 349-157 (506)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 3¢	$750	$449.83	-$299.89	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
Seutervoinen	Noavg 95.3¢	$243.97	$251.65	+$7.42	85% 311-57 (368)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Yesavg 3¢	$402.78	$240.55	-$174.34	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 97.5¢	$190.82	$192.47	+$1.65	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 5.1¢	$175.02	$61.45	-$116.97	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
DEGENKHAN<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$4.93	$4.92	-$0.01	66% 1107-565 (1672)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$1.39	$1.43	+$0.04	77% 8889-2658 (11547)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$5,982.04

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$102.44

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

elmcap2

Invested

$5,861.34

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$70.3

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

QMG-SCALAR

Invested

$779.4

Value

$783.35

PnL

+$3.96

Record

75%

116-39 (155)

kukubaja

Invested

$765.89

Value

$766.91

PnL

+$0.63

Record

84%

516-99 (615)

Kevindoto

Invested

$726.16

Value

$750.99

PnL

+$24.83

Record

80%

437-110 (547)

Donny.T

Invested

$675.32

Value

$697.93

PnL

+$22.61

Record

72%

484-187 (671)

-Dominus-

Invested

$679

Value

$688.1

PnL

+$8.75

Record

69%

349-157 (506)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$750

Value

$449.83

PnL

-$299.89

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

Seutervoinen

Invested

$243.97

Value

$251.65

PnL

+$7.42

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Yes

Invested

$402.78

Value

$240.55

PnL

-$174.34

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$190.82

Value

$192.47

PnL

+$1.65

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$175.02

Value

$61.45

PnL

-$116.97

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

DEGENKHAN<$100

Invested

$4.93

Value

$4.92

PnL

-$0.01

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$1.39

Value

$1.43

PnL

+$0.04

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

4576h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 10

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.