Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 6.5¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 73%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$626.8

Smart Money Entry

4.9¢ → 6.5¢

+33% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares44,507

Combined PnL+$600.59

No3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,206

Combined PnL+$26.2

Yes — 73%No — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

4824h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 4.7¢	$107.53	$2.3K	+$550.02	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 91.7¢	$935	$935	+$0	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Yesavg 6.4¢	$387.74	$383.45	+$8.3	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
WO wokerjoesleeper	Noavg 77.6¢	$128.72	$155.08	+$26.36	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$35.89	$46.33	+$11.92	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 93.9¢	$37.75	$37.59	-$0.16	40% 174-265 (439)
SB sbimbgCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$16.2	$34.02	+$18.9	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$15.19	$31.9	+$17.72	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
SF sfkjbsr457CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.4¢	$19.58	$19.27	+$0.31	54% 8322-7007 (15329)
Ryxon21CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.1¢	$9.9	$3.28	-$6.62	71% 318-130 (448)
RA ratedCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$0.25	$0.3	+$0.05	29% 2865-6952 (9817)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$107.53

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$550.02

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$935

Value

$935

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Yes

Invested

$387.74

Value

$383.45

PnL

+$8.3

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

wokerjoesleeper

Invested

$128.72

Value

$155.08

PnL

+$26.36

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.89

Value

$46.33

PnL

+$11.92

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$37.75

Value

$37.59

PnL

-$0.16

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

sbimbgCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.2

Value

$34.02

PnL

+$18.9

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.19

Value

$31.9

PnL

+$17.72

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

sfkjbsr457CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.58

Value

$19.27

PnL

+$0.31

Record

54%

8322-7007 (15329)

Ryxon21CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.9

Value

$3.28

PnL

-$6.62

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

ratedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0.05

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

4824h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.8%

6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1185.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

1285.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.