Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$39.58

Smart Money Entry

95.4¢ → 98.6¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$989.84

Total Shares1,002

Combined PnL+$49.36

Yes4 traders

Total Value$46.75

Total Shares3,339

Combined PnL-$9.77

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Car	Noavg 95.1¢	$644.89	$668.75	+$23.86	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 94¢	$132.6	$136.12	+$3.52	77% 1408-416 (1824)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 97.6¢	$102.84	$87.78	+$0.48	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$99.16	$49.44	+$20.28	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
Xeny<$100	Noavg 96¢	$45.35	$46.57	+$1.23	60% 978-662 (1640)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$42	$28	-$11	68% 2074-958 (3032)
BigRabbitCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$15.82	$11.66	-$3.75	40% 704-1062 (1766)
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$1.5	$6.99	+$5.5	74% 2792-1004 (3796)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$1.17	$1.17	+$0	39% 175-269 (444)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yes	$0.09	$0.09	-$0.52	50% 357-357 (714)

Car

Invested

$644.89

Value

$668.75

PnL

+$23.86

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$132.6

Value

$136.12

PnL

+$3.52

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$102.84

Value

$87.78

PnL

+$0.48

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$99.16

Value

$49.44

PnL

+$20.28

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

Xeny<$100

Invested

$45.35

Value

$46.57

PnL

+$1.23

Record

60%

978-662 (1640)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42

Value

$28

PnL

-$11

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

BigRabbitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.82

Value

$11.66

PnL

-$3.75

Record

40%

704-1062 (1766)

viniiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$6.99

PnL

+$5.5

Record

74%

2792-1004 (3796)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.17

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.52

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.