Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 0.5

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (90%) · Over at 53¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 10

Over53¢Under47¢Ended Sat, Oct 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 90%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$73.12

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 52.5¢

-4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,542

Combined PnL-$124.1

Under1 trader

Total Value$521.13

Total Shares1,097

Combined PnL+$50.99

Over — 90%Under — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

500h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

11 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Over 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000	Overavg 55.7¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$72.79	42% 2258-3075 (5333)
MI MinevaJ	Overavg 59¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$136.92	57% 1048-784 (1832)
DA dashattacker	Overavg 47.3¢	$823.77	$913.99	+$90.23	72% 2540-972 (3512)
SY SyrrokCTR	Underavg 43.1¢	$470.14	$521.13	+$50.99	61% 1815-1166 (2981)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 56.3¢	$45	$85.03	-$4.29	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 46¢	$35.92	$77.97	+$9.65	58% 10670-7656 (18326)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 66¢	$31.64	$25.17	-$6.47	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 76¢	$10	$6.91	-$3.09	67% 23466-11821 (35287)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 54¢	$5.8	$5.64	-$0.16	55% 8413-6766 (15179)
RE retarb<$100	Overavg 66.5¢	$4.75	$4.49	-$0.26	48% 4253-4544 (8797)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000

Over

Invested

$1,282.43

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$72.79

Record

42%

2258-3075 (5333)

MinevaJ

Over

Invested

$1,242.82

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$136.92

Record

57%

1048-784 (1832)

dashattacker

Over

Invested

$823.77

Value

$913.99

PnL

+$90.23

Record

72%

2540-972 (3512)

SyrrokCTR

Under

Invested

$470.14

Value

$521.13

PnL

+$50.99

Record

61%

1815-1166 (2981)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$45

Value

$85.03

PnL

-$4.29

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$35.92

Value

$77.97

PnL

+$9.65

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$31.64

Value

$25.17

PnL

-$6.47

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$6.91

PnL

-$3.09

Record

67%

23466-11821 (35287)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$5.8

Value

$5.64

PnL

-$0.16

Record

55%

8413-6766 (15179)

retarb<$100

Over

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.49

PnL

-$0.26

Record

48%

4253-4544 (8797)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

500h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

11 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Over 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.