Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 84¢ · $30K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.4K

Combined PnL

$-2.5K

Smart Money Entry

83.4¢ → 84¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$22.3K

Total Shares26,566

Combined PnL+$172

Yes5 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares47,419

Combined PnL$-2.7K

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

1136h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Noavg 83.3¢	$22.1K	$22.3K	+$174.23	50% 5951-6042 (11993)
saintaphextwinCTR	Yesavg 27.9¢	$7.0K	$4.2K	$-3.0K	39% 397-627 (1024)
TH thebug44CTR	Yesavg 15.1¢	$3.2K	$3.6K	+$194.76	33% 42-86 (128)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 12.1¢	$164.63	$232.02	+$53.76	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
CO cowcatARB<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$90.64	$68.58	-$22.06	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
└ No leg	Noavg 72¢	$32.85	$38.32	+$5.47
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27¢	$48.05	$30.26	-$27.53
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 87¢	$64.88	$62.64	-$2.24	39% 175-269 (444)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.2¢	$1.08	$1.02	-$0.06	50% 357-357 (714)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.9¢	$0.76	$0.72	-$0.04	57% 3069-2356 (5425)

purplegatto

Invested

$22,078.22

Value

$22.3K

PnL

+$174.23

Record

50%

5951-6042 (11993)

saintaphextwinCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,959.56

Value

$4.2K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

39%

397-627 (1024)

thebug44CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,177.5

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$194.76

Record

33%

42-86 (128)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$164.63

Value

$232.02

PnL

+$53.76

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

cowcatARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.64

Value

$68.58

PnL

-$22.06

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

Both legs:

No$32.8572¢+$5.47

Yes$48.0527¢-$27.53

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$64.88

Value

$62.64

PnL

-$2.24

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.76

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$0.04

Record

57%

3069-2356 (5425)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

1136h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.