Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 7.5¢ · $41K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$41.4K

Combined PnL

$-8.7K

Smart Money Entry

9.1¢ → 7.5¢

-18% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$41.4K

Total Shares552,122

Combined PnL$-8.7K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

2313h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
saintaphextwinCTR	Yesavg 9.7¢	$41.3K	$31.9K	$-9.3K	39% 397-627 (1024)
TH thebug44CTR	Yesavg 7.1¢	$8.1K	$8.5K	+$479.63	33% 42-86 (128)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR	Yesavg 6.3¢	$435.31	$516.64	+$81.33	54% 399-345 (744)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 7.8¢	$213.9	$206.29	-$7.61	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yes	$155.07	$155.07	+$97.64	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.2¢	$60	$37.5	-$22.5	57% 3069-2356 (5425)
studmuffin6969CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$45	$37.5	-$7.5	59% 1027-717 (1744)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$28.08	$23.4	-$4.68	42% 2258-3075 (5333)
RI RichiddCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$1	$0.83	-$0.17	46% 47-56 (103)

saintaphextwinCTR

Yes

Invested

$41,316.13

Value

$31.9K

PnL

$-9.3K

Record

39%

397-627 (1024)

thebug44CTR

Yes

Invested

$8,056.86

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$479.63

Record

33%

42-86 (128)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR

Yes

Invested

$435.31

Value

$516.64

PnL

+$81.33

Record

54%

399-345 (744)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$213.9

Value

$206.29

PnL

-$7.61

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$155.07

Value

$155.07

PnL

+$97.64

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60

Value

$37.5

PnL

-$22.5

Record

57%

3069-2356 (5425)

studmuffin6969CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45

Value

$37.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.08

Value

$23.4

PnL

-$4.68

Record

42%

2258-3075 (5333)

RichiddCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$0.17

Record

46%

47-56 (103)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

2313h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.9%

7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1025.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

1125.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.