Consensus PnL $659K · win rate 51% (280–269, n=549) · was PM monthly #271 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$658.6K
Record
280W / 269L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 549 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1696
Source
PM monthly #271
Trades
735
Markets
667
Volume
$4.8M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 5 on the consensus side (40%)- Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?No $4.9K · now 47¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (25% of 8)
- Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?No $2.2K · now 94¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (47% of 19)
- Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?No $1.9K · now 36¢ · in at 62¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?No $130 · now 28¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?No $63 · now 95¢ · in at 94¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
317 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 50¢- Soccer
+49 pts
side won 100% of 256 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +49%
- NBA
+50 pts
side won 100% of 22 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +43%
- Esports
+52 pts
side won 100% of 13 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +38%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 95% of 37)
- 30–50¢: 34%(won 100% of 107)
- 50–70¢: 42%(won 98% of 133)
- 70¢ and up: 13%(won 100% of 40)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.