Consensus PnL $177K · win rate 78% (176–50, n=226) · was PM monthly #378 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$176.6K
Record
176W / 50L
Win Rate
78.0%
of 226 settled
Batting Avg
75.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#500
Source
PM monthly #378
Trades
236
Markets
258
Volume
$3.6M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 6 on the consensus side (67%)- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $13K · now 98¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (91% of 43)
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No $2.3K · now 81¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (71% of 18)
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?No $385 · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (86% of 22)
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes $137 · now 3¢ · in at 12¢against the consensus (No)
- Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?No $20 · now 91¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?No $1 · now 0¢ · in at 62¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
212 settled consensus markets · held side won 83% at an average entry of 82¢- Soccer
+13 pts
side won 100% of 19 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +6%
- Crypto
+7 pts
side won 89% of 28 · avg entry 83¢
ROI 0%
- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 88% of 43 · avg entry 85¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 50% of 14 at an average 71¢ entry (−21 pts against the price), ROI −10%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 43% of 7)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 29% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 52% of 27)
- 70¢ and up: 81%(won 92% of 171)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.