Consensus PnL -$68K · win rate 51% (5205–4955, n=10160) · hand-picked wallet · holds 19 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-68.5K
Record
5205W / 4955L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 10160 settled
Batting Avg
67.3%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1676
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
28,041
Markets
12,791
Volume
$5.1M
Top consensus positions
19 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 19 on the consensus side (42%)- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $1.1K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5Under $693 · now 61¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (58% of 20)
- Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Patriots $449 · now 46¢ · in at 43¢against the consensus (Dolphins)
- Ravens vs. BillsBills $320 · now 62¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (50% of 10)
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Bills $213 · now 47¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Ravens)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNo $212 · now 28¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $166 · now 28¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Spread: Commanders (-5.5)Eagles $143 · now 47¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (77% of 13)
Specialties
5,176 settled consensus markets · held side won 96% at an average entry of 56¢- MLB
+49 pts
side won 100% of 510 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +46%
- Other Sports
+46 pts
side won 99% of 216 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +39%
- College Football
+51 pts
side won 100% of 41 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +50%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 78% of 204)
- 30–50¢: 36%(won 96% of 1858)
- 50–70¢: 40%(won 96% of 2094)
- 70¢ and up: 20%(won 99% of 1020)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.