Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat?

15 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 78¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 4

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$483.95

Smart Money Entry

78.7¢ → 77.5¢

-1% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 18 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares14,457

Combined PnL+$468.08

No15 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares7,018

Combined PnL+$15.87

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

481h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (18 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 19.1¢	$2.4K	$2.8K	+$429.44	40% 704-1065 (1769)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 80¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$55.81	45% 2314-2842 (5156)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 79.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$32.02	56% 18370-14706 (33076)
macrosteaks	Noavg 75.6¢	$896.03	$970.44	+$74.41	54% 3274-2742 (6016)
SB sbimbg	Noavg 78.1¢	$1.1K	$866.59	-$6.29	70% 3203-1386 (4589)
RA RailcoolCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$380.06	$418.43	+$38.37	51% 86-81 (167)
LP lpgb	Noavg 80¢	$350.4	$337.26	-$13.14	25% 181-542 (723)
GA Gaditima	Noavg 77¢	$419.24	$270.22	+$50.67	48% 6236-6891 (13127)
WA WarriorHARB<$100	Noavg 80¢	$245.17	$237.85	-$7.32	17% 1026-4959 (5985)
└ No leg	Noavg 80¢	$195.2	$187.88	-$7.32
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22¢	$49.97	$49.97	+$0
GR grinder1011	Noavg 79.2¢	$213.16	$219.24	+$6.08	37% 109-185 (294)
VE VerilyWinningly	Noavg 80¢	$106.4	$102.41	-$3.99	17% 221-1066 (1287)
SP SpringlyFawl<$100	Noavg 80¢	$59.2	$56.98	-$2.22	30% 2189-5039 (7228)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 80.3¢	$32.1	$30.8	-$1.3	50% 7813-7864 (15677)
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$10	$12.22	+$0.28	58% 6030-4389 (10419)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 78¢	$7.82	$7.72	-$0.1	35% 710-1327 (2037)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 78¢	$7.81	$7.71	-$0.1	35% 558-1046 (1604)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 79¢	$4.09	$3.99	-$0.1	42% 1898-2621 (4519)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 79¢	$3.98	$3.88	-$0.1	37% 685-1150 (1835)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 79¢	$3.97	$3.87	-$0.1	46% 1569-1829 (3398)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,382.98

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$429.44

Record

40%

704-1065 (1769)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$1,636.92

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$55.81

Record

45%

2314-2842 (5156)

cigarettes

Invested

$1,132.51

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$32.02

Record

56%

18370-14706 (33076)

macrosteaks

Invested

$896.03

Value

$970.44

PnL

+$74.41

Record

54%

3274-2742 (6016)

sbimbg

Invested

$1,118.18

Value

$866.59

PnL

-$6.29

Record

70%

3203-1386 (4589)

RailcoolCTR

Yes

Invested

$380.06

Value

$418.43

PnL

+$38.37

Record

51%

86-81 (167)

lpgb

Invested

$350.4

Value

$337.26

PnL

-$13.14

Record

25%

181-542 (723)

Gaditima

Invested

$419.24

Value

$270.22

PnL

+$50.67

Record

48%

6236-6891 (13127)

WarriorHARB<$100

Invested

$245.17

Value

$237.85

PnL

-$7.32

Record

17%

1026-4959 (5985)

Both legs:

No$195.280¢-$7.32

Yes$49.9722¢+$0

grinder1011

Invested

$213.16

Value

$219.24

PnL

+$6.08

Record

37%

109-185 (294)

VerilyWinningly

Invested

$106.4

Value

$102.41

PnL

-$3.99

Record

17%

221-1066 (1287)

SpringlyFawl<$100

Invested

$59.2

Value

$56.98

PnL

-$2.22

Record

30%

2189-5039 (7228)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$32.1

Value

$30.8

PnL

-$1.3

Record

50%

7813-7864 (15677)

berlinskiesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$12.22

PnL

+$0.28

Record

58%

6030-4389 (10419)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$7.82

Value

$7.72

PnL

-$0.1

Record

35%

710-1327 (2037)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$7.81

Value

$7.71

PnL

-$0.1

Record

35%

558-1046 (1604)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.09

Value

$3.99

PnL

-$0.1

Record

42%

1898-2621 (4519)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.98

Value

$3.88

PnL

-$0.1

Record

37%

685-1150 (1835)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.97

Value

$3.87

PnL

-$0.1

Record

46%

1569-1829 (3398)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 18 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

481h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (18 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.2%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.