Will the Republican Party win the AR-02 House seat?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 79¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 4

Yes79¢No21¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

-$357.25

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 78.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares11,284

Combined PnL-$333.46

No3 traders

Total Value$163

Total Shares776

Combined PnL-$23.78

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

427h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123	Yesavg 83¢	$4.1K	$3.9K	-$248.79	47% 480-535 (1015)
GA Gaditima	Yesavg 78¢	$124.8	$3.3K	-$73.95	48% 6236-6891 (13127)
CI cigarettes	Yesavg 76.8¢	$949.69	$951.79	+$2.1	56% 18370-14706 (33076)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 78.9¢	$532.62	$504.56	-$11.86	45% 2314-2842 (5156)
SI SitsToPeeCTR	No	$414.48	$119.21	-$32.63	61% 284-182 (466)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$76.39	$75.43	-$0.97	49% 1040-1098 (2138)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 20.5¢	$371.62	$37.49	+$8.24	53% 7528-6656 (14184)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$5.7	$6.3	+$0.6	50% 7813-7864 (15677)

anoin123

Yes

Invested

$4,137.86

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$248.79

Record

47%

480-535 (1015)

Gaditima

Yes

Invested

$124.8

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$73.95

Record

48%

6236-6891 (13127)

cigarettes

Yes

Invested

$949.69

Value

$951.79

PnL

+$2.1

Record

56%

18370-14706 (33076)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$532.62

Value

$504.56

PnL

-$11.86

Record

45%

2314-2842 (5156)

SitsToPeeCTR

Invested

$414.48

Value

$119.21

PnL

-$32.63

Record

61%

284-182 (466)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.39

Value

$75.43

PnL

-$0.97

Record

49%

1040-1098 (2138)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$371.62

Value

$37.49

PnL

+$8.24

Record

53%

7528-6656 (14184)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$5.7

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$0.6

Record

50%

7813-7864 (15677)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

427h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.2%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.