Consensus PnL -$18K · win rate 58% (3474–2554, n=6028) · was PM monthly #964 · holds 25 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-18.2K
Record
3474W / 2554L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 6028 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1269
Source
PM monthly #964
Trades
950
Markets
20,820
Volume
$2.6M
Top consensus positions
25 in listed consensus markets · 22 of 25 on the consensus side (88%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:15PM-3:30PM ETDown $337 · now 0¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (25% of 20)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:45PM-3:00PM ETDown $196 · now 0¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (52% of 21)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ETDown $193 · now 100¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (65% of 20)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 1:45PM-2:00PM ETDown $163 · now 100¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (43% of 23)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:00PM-3:15PM ETUp $147 · now 0¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (41% of 23)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:30PM-2:45PM ETDown $120 · now 100¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (71% of 15)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ETUp $84 · now 100¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (77% of 13)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ETDown $58 · now 1¢ · in at 65¢against the consensus (Up)
Specialties
2,505 settled consensus markets · held side won 77% at an average entry of 57¢- Crypto
+21 pts
side won 77% of 2505 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +9%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 85% of 20)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 70% of 396)
- 50–70¢: 71%(won 75% of 1774)
- 70¢ and up: 13%(won 99% of 315)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.