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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 41% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

22

Up 41%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Signal

Up

9 of 22 top traders (41%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,783
Combined PnL$-1.7K
Down13 traders
Total Value$947.17
Total Shares947
Combined PnL+$164.06
Up — 41%Down — 59%
CR
CrouchPredictionsCTR
Up

Invested

$1,361.58

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

Polkadot-Frog
Down

Invested

$426.67

Value

$463

PnL

+$36.33

Record

64%

58907-33468 (92375)

PE
peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$211.27

Value

$203.82

PnL

-$7.45

Record

57%

6774-5010 (11784)

Both legs:

Down$116.3857.1¢+$87.44
Up$94.8949.5¢-$94.89
TH
thesidehustleCTR
Up

Invested

$169.07

Value

—

PnL

-$169.07

Record

54%

11314-9625 (20939)

0X
0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100
Down

Invested

$71.62

Value

$82.85

PnL

+$11.23

Record

73%

95065-35699 (130764)

TM
tmsd-testCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$93.21

Value

—

PnL

-$93.21

Record

54%

14578-12427 (27005)

HO
hoodquant<$100
Down

Invested

$49.5

Value

$50

PnL

+$0.5

Record

93%

24319-1811 (26130)

Atomforge<$100
Down

Invested

$41.72

Value

$49.6

PnL

+$7.88

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Down

Invested

$38.18

Value

$54.58

PnL

+$16.4

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Down

Invested

$39.1

Value

$50.62

PnL

+$11.52

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100
Down

Invested

$24.29

Value

$40

PnL

+$15.71

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

AA
aaa221<$100
Down

Invested

$41.26

Value

$37.49

PnL

+$16.5

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

DV
dvasdkasodk<$100
Down

Invested

$20.58

Value

$28.34

PnL

+$7.77

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100
Down

Invested

$21.38

Value

$56.71

PnL

+$35.33

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$28.85

Value

—

PnL

-$28.85

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

AS
asidjasiodja<$100
Down

Invested

$17.44

Value

$19.73

PnL

+$2.29

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

ohioismCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$17.45

Value

—

PnL

-$17.45

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

KA
Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$8.65

Value

—

PnL

-$8.65

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

GO
GoodRecipientCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$15.2

Value

—

PnL

-$15.2

Record

43%

656-861 (1517)

PB
PBot-6<$100
Down

Invested

$4.9

Value

$10

PnL

+$5.1

Record

58%

51349-37471 (88820)

AS
asabovesobelow2<$100
Down

Invested

$6.75

Value

$4.26

PnL

-$2.49

Record

68%

1708-799 (2507)

BoneOhioCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$11

Value

—

PnL

-$11

Record

74%

103044-36553 (139597)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.2

Value

—

PnL

-$1.2

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x6a9e9cfa...5cb638
Slug
btc-updown-15m-1793563200

Traders in this Market

CR

CrouchPredictions

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.4K

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $463

+$36.33
PE

peepeepoopoo24

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$7.45
TH

thesidehustle

CTR

Up — $0

-$169.07
0X

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Down — $82.85

+$11.23
TM

tmsd-test

CTR

Up — $0

-$93.21
HO

hoodquant

Down — $50

+$0.5

Atomforge

Down — $49.6

+$7.88
AS

asdaefef

Down — $54.58

+$16.4
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $50.62

+$11.52
Trade on Polymarket