Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET

10 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Down (43%) · Down at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 43%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$448.3

Smart Money Entry

79.8¢ → 100¢

+25% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 23 top traders (43%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,087

Combined PnL-$129.9

Up13 traders

Total Value$136.28

Total Shares882

Combined PnL-$318.39

Down — 43%Up — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 83.6¢	$834.03	$699.35	-$134.68	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 70.6¢	$163.3	$162.94	-$0.37	54% 11314-9625 (20939)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 85.5¢	$67.85	$53.39	-$14.46	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 15.9¢	$48	$41.13	-$6.87	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 75.8¢	$37.7	$38.92	+$1.22	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 75.9¢	$37.28	$38.34	+$1.06	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 75.6¢	$31.4	$34.23	+$2.83	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 64¢	$94.96	$29.04	-$65.92	74% 103044-36553 (139597)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 69¢	$20.04	$28.83	+$8.79	65% 112572-59423 (171995)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 40.1¢	$29.04	$17.29	-$11.75	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 64.9¢	$17.55	$16.06	-$1.49	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 63.2¢	$25.02	$14.07	-$10.95	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 47¢	$4.7	$9.55	+$4.85	58% 51349-37471 (88820)
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Upavg 42.6¢	$13.05	$7.13	-$5.92	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$60.79	$6.84	-$53.95	54% 14578-12427 (27005)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 41.6¢	$26.75	$5.03	-$21.72	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 49¢	$2.45	$4.77	+$2.32	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 61.4¢	$56.46	$4.14	-$52.32	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 54.2¢	$39	$3.24	-$35.76	57% 12760-9487 (22247)
AS asabovesobelow2CTR<$100	Upavg 67.2¢	$6	$2.75	-$3.25	68% 1708-799 (2507)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$25.48	$2.21	-$23.28	56% 8353-6485 (14838)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100	Upavg 38¢	$18.15	$2.15	-$16	73% 95065-35699 (130764)
GO GoodRecipientCTR<$100	Upavg 42.1¢	$11.97	$1.28	-$10.69	43% 656-861 (1517)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$834.03

Value

$699.35

PnL

-$134.68

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$163.3

Value

$162.94

PnL

-$0.37

Record

54%

11314-9625 (20939)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$67.85

Value

$53.39

PnL

-$14.46

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$48

Value

$41.13

PnL

-$6.87

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$37.7

Value

$38.92

PnL

+$1.22

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$37.28

Value

$38.34

PnL

+$1.06

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$31.4

Value

$34.23

PnL

+$2.83

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$94.96

Value

$29.04

PnL

-$65.92

Record

74%

103044-36553 (139597)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$20.04

Value

$28.83

PnL

+$8.79

Record

65%

112572-59423 (171995)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$29.04

Value

$17.29

PnL

-$11.75

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$17.55

Value

$16.06

PnL

-$1.49

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$25.02

Value

$14.07

PnL

-$10.95

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$4.7

Value

$9.55

PnL

+$4.85

Record

58%

51349-37471 (88820)

AtomforgeCTR<$100

Invested

$13.05

Value

$7.13

PnL

-$5.92

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

tmsd-testCTR<$100

Invested

$60.79

Value

$6.84

PnL

-$53.95

Record

54%

14578-12427 (27005)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$26.75

Value

$5.03

PnL

-$21.72

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$2.45

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$2.32

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$56.46

Value

$4.14

PnL

-$52.32

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$39

Value

$3.24

PnL

-$35.76

Record

57%

12760-9487 (22247)

asabovesobelow2CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$3.25

Record

68%

1708-799 (2507)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$25.48

Value

$2.21

PnL

-$23.28

Record

56%

8353-6485 (14838)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100

Invested

$18.15

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$16

Record

73%

95065-35699 (130764)

GoodRecipientCTR<$100

Invested

$11.97

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$10.69

Record

43%

656-861 (1517)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 23 top traders (43%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.