Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
21
Down 25%
$1.2K
-$863.16
Smart Money Signal
6 of 21 top traders (29%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 62.9¢ | $827.72 | — | -$827.72 | 56% 14924-11728 (26652) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $443.92 | $448.4 | +$4.48 | 93% 24319-1811 (26130) |
TH thesidehustleCTR | Downavg 64.4¢ | $321.75 | — | -$321.75 | 54% 11314-9625 (20939) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 23.4¢ | $51.62 | $220.46 | +$168.84 | 74% 103044-36553 (139597) |
TM tmsd-test<$100 | Upavg 85.9¢ | $72.4 | $83 | +$10.6 | 54% 14578-12427 (27005) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 43.8¢ | $68.3 | $78.7 | +$10.4 | 55% 18379-14972 (33351) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 79.9¢ | $67.7 | $56.74 | -$10.96 | 66% 127109-65406 (192515) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 57.8¢ | $41.41 | $52.5 | +$11.09 | 61% 96050-60547 (156597) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Downavg 45.4¢ | $51.6 | — | -$51.6 | 57% 12760-9487 (22247) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $26 | $50 | +$24 | 58% 38498-27579 (66077) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $6.47 | $25 | +$18.53 | 62% 44284-27268 (71552) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 33.3¢ | $11.98 | $36 | +$24.02 | 56% 58635-45291 (103926) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 63.1¢ | $9.64 | $15.28 | +$5.64 | 65% 4332-2383 (6715) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Upavg 72.3¢ | $19.94 | $15 | -$4.95 | 50% 7981-8012 (15993) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 10.5¢ | $5.25 | $50 | +$44.75 | 58% 61090-44611 (105701) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 25.4¢ | $12.7 | $50 | +$37.3 | 65% 126454-67593 (194047) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 15.8¢ | $4.11 | $26.03 | +$21.92 | 52% 91321-85769 (177090) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $2.1 | — | -$2.1 | 64% 40639-23326 (63965) |
AS asabovesobelow2<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $4 | $4.08 | +$0.08 | 68% 1708-799 (2507) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Downavg 4.8¢ | $4.34 | — | -$4.34 | 54% 15429-13318 (28747) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $32 | — | -$21.4 | 64% 24882-13745 (38627) |
Invested
$827.72
Value
—
PnL
-$827.72
Record
56%
14924-11728 (26652)
Invested
$443.92
Value
$448.4
PnL
+$4.48
Record
93%
24319-1811 (26130)
Invested
$321.75
Value
—
PnL
-$321.75
Record
54%
11314-9625 (20939)
BoneOhioInvested
$51.62
Value
$220.46
PnL
+$168.84
Record
74%
103044-36553 (139597)
Invested
$72.4
Value
$83
PnL
+$10.6
Record
54%
14578-12427 (27005)
Invested
$68.3
Value
$78.7
PnL
+$10.4
Record
55%
18379-14972 (33351)
Invested
$67.7
Value
$56.74
PnL
-$10.96
Record
66%
127109-65406 (192515)
Invested
$41.41
Value
$52.5
PnL
+$11.09
Record
61%
96050-60547 (156597)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$51.6
Value
—
PnL
-$51.6
Record
57%
12760-9487 (22247)
Invested
$26
Value
$50
PnL
+$24
Record
58%
38498-27579 (66077)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$6.47
Value
$25
PnL
+$18.53
Record
62%
44284-27268 (71552)
Invested
$11.98
Value
$36
PnL
+$24.02
Record
56%
58635-45291 (103926)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$9.64
Value
$15.28
PnL
+$5.64
Record
65%
4332-2383 (6715)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$15
PnL
-$4.95
Record
50%
7981-8012 (15993)
Invested
$5.25
Value
$50
PnL
+$44.75
Record
58%
61090-44611 (105701)
Invested
$12.7
Value
$50
PnL
+$37.3
Record
65%
126454-67593 (194047)
Invested
$4.11
Value
$26.03
PnL
+$21.92
Record
52%
91321-85769 (177090)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$2.1
Value
—
PnL
-$2.1
Record
64%
40639-23326 (63965)
Invested
$4
Value
$4.08
PnL
+$0.08
Record
68%
1708-799 (2507)
Invested
$4.34
Value
—
PnL
-$4.34
Record
54%
15429-13318 (28747)
Invested
$32
Value
—
PnL
-$21.4
Record
64%
24882-13745 (38627)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $448.4
thesidehustle
CTRDown — $0
BoneOhio
Up — $220.46
tmsd-test
Up — $83
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $78.7
asdaefef
Up — $56.74
asidjasiodja
Up — $52.5
wowitsamazing
CTRDown — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $50