Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?

18 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (69%) · Yes at 98¢ · $43K held · ends Nov 4

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 69%

Total Value

$42.9K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

93.8¢ → 97.5¢

+4% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 26 top traders (69%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes18 traders

Total Value$42.5K

Total Shares43,600

Combined PnL+$1.6K

No8 traders

Total Value$358.64

Total Shares14,258

Combined PnL-$499.36

Yes — 69%No — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

68% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpYes 92% · 13

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 69% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thoodr	Yesavg 96.7¢	$11.4K	$11.6K	+$76.23	96% 631-24 (655)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 85¢	$7.2K	$8.3K	+$1.1K	61% 203-132 (335)
DZ dzsibenaja	Yesavg 95.8¢	$5.7K	$5.9K	+$89.04	88% 171-24 (195)
wagwanshawty	Yesavg 97.2¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$2.48	— 10-5 (15)
CO cocococococo	Yesavg 96.4¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$32.83	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
SirHarryOakes	Yesavg 87.4¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$230.39	84% 215-41 (256)
4751346	Yesavg 97.3¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	-$2	72% 1257-483 (1740)
BlondBeast	Yesavg 96.5¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$13.13	69% 780-347 (1127)
VO Votei14Voude22	Yesavg 97.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$1.39	78% 341-99 (440)
OraculumNobius	Yesavg 96.3¢	$962.7	$976	+$11.81	90% 5487-612 (6099)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 91.6¢	$668.27	$712.23	+$43.95	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
DEGENKHAN	Yesavg 97.2¢	$607.94	$610.44	+$0.63	66% 1107-565 (1672)
yen4u	Yesavg 97.4¢	$508.82	$509.86	-$0.78	86% 807-136 (943)
PU PutsOnPeace	Yesavg 97.2¢	$291.6	$292.8	+$0.6	66% 955-482 (1437)
ImJustKenCTR	Noavg 6.2¢	$495.45	$199.7	-$283.76	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 6¢	$263	$111.77	-$151.22	47% 474-534 (1008)
bernardbulletin	Yesavg 95.9¢	$105.45	$107.37	+$1.65	69% 987-450 (1437)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Noavg 4.4¢	$65.81	$39.2	-$26.61	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
Talophex<$100	Yesavg 97¢	$11.17	$11.24	+$0.03	91% 929-95 (1024)
Seutervoinen<$100	Yesavg 92¢	$10.57	$11.21	+$0.61	85% 311-57 (368)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 96.4¢	$56.26	$3.82	+$0.57	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Noavg 23.9¢	$35.07	$3.68	-$31.38	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
TH TheImpasseCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$9.94	$3.55	-$6.18	22% 145-528 (673)
probabilityCTR<$100	Noavg 2.4¢	$0.61	$0.64	+$0.04	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$23.31	$0.06	+$0.06	77% 8889-2658 (11547)

thoodr

Yes

Invested

$11,447.37

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$76.23

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$7,208.24

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

dzsibenaja

Yes

Invested

$5,745.97

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$89.04

Record

88%

171-24 (195)

wagwanshawty

Yes

Invested

$3,175.62

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$2.48

Record

—

10-5 (15)

cocococococo

Yes

Invested

$3,107.01

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$32.83

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

SirHarryOakes

Yes

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$230.39

Record

84%

215-41 (256)

4751346

Yes

Invested

$1,946.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$2

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

BlondBeast

Yes

Invested

$1,752.44

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$13.13

Record

69%

780-347 (1127)

Votei14Voude22

Yes

Invested

$1,352

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$1.39

Record

78%

341-99 (440)

OraculumNobius

Yes

Invested

$962.7

Value

$976

PnL

+$11.81

Record

90%

5487-612 (6099)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$668.27

Value

$712.23

PnL

+$43.95

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

DEGENKHAN

Yes

Invested

$607.94

Value

$610.44

PnL

+$0.63

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

yen4u

Yes

Invested

$508.82

Value

$509.86

PnL

-$0.78

Record

86%

807-136 (943)

PutsOnPeace

Yes

Invested

$291.6

Value

$292.8

PnL

+$0.6

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

ImJustKenCTR

Invested

$495.45

Value

$199.7

PnL

-$283.76

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$263

Value

$111.77

PnL

-$151.22

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

bernardbulletin

Yes

Invested

$105.45

Value

$107.37

PnL

+$1.65

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Invested

$65.81

Value

$39.2

PnL

-$26.61

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Talophex<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.17

Value

$11.24

PnL

+$0.03

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

Seutervoinen<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.57

Value

$11.21

PnL

+$0.61

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.26

Value

$3.82

PnL

+$0.57

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Invested

$35.07

Value

$3.68

PnL

-$31.38

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

TheImpasseCTR<$100

Invested

$9.94

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$6.18

Record

22%

145-528 (673)

probabilityCTR<$100

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.64

PnL

+$0.04

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

HourglassCTR<$100

Invested

$23.31

Value

$0.06

PnL

+$0.06

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 26 top traders (69%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

68% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpYes 92% · 13

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 69% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.