Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (79%). 12 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-04?

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 22¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 4

Yes79¢No21¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.6K

Combined PnL

$47.33

Smart Money Entry

22.2¢ → 21.5¢

-3% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares8,783

Combined PnL-$18.7

No12 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares32,972

Combined PnL+$66.03

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

56h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

72% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (16 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
timebrotime	Yesavg 78.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$33	67% 899-439 (1338)
DV dv-pmCTR	Noavg 22.6¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	+$103.48	49% 3284-3391 (6675)
AN AnonymousUsername	Yesavg 78¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$4.74	71% 7038-2817 (9855)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 21.7¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$25.84	51% 24004-22756 (46760)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 20.7¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$71.64	53% 16492-14656 (31148)
└ No leg	Noavg 20.7¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$67.58
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 77.9¢	$538.19	$542.25	+$4.06
fraj0la	Yesavg 76.7¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$9.83	64% 245-139 (384)
nigiri99CTR	Noavg 22.9¢	$1.0K	$987.36	-$38.51	46% 8349-9745 (18094)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 21¢	$554.24	$580.64	+$39.59	50% 27743-27603 (55346)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yesavg 78.4¢	$1.3K	$448.26	-$8.98	48% 58721-62631 (121352)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 78.4¢	$338.75	$336.96	-$171.71
└ No leg	Noavg 22.1¢	$111.61	$111.3	+$162.73
NM NM-P	Yesavg 77¢	$385	$390	+$5	46% 1299-1520 (2819)
GC GC-P	Yesavg 77¢	$324.5	$328.72	+$4.21	47% 1324-1519 (2843)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 22.9¢	$141.15	$135.85	-$5.3	52% 1149-1066 (2215)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 22.8¢	$139.5	$134.42	-$5.08	54% 1178-1008 (2186)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 22.9¢	$98.86	$95.15	-$3.71	51% 1084-1025 (2109)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 22.5¢	$68.37	$66.84	-$1.53	51% 7644-7356 (15000)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$53.96	$56.53	+$2.57	50% 36318-35797 (72115)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 21.8¢	$53.36	$53.77	+$0.41	58% 19232-14159 (33391)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$1.68	$1.68	-$0	50% 25470-25164 (50634)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 22.9¢	$1.49	$1.43	-$0.06	53% 1134-1025 (2159)

timebrotime

Yes

Invested

$3,033

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$33

Record

67%

899-439 (1338)

dv-pmCTR

Invested

$3,024.74

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$103.48

Record

49%

3284-3391 (6675)

AnonymousUsername

Yes

Invested

$2,510.62

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$4.74

Record

71%

7038-2817 (9855)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$2,461.57

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$25.84

Record

51%

24004-22756 (46760)

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$2,329.49

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$71.64

Record

53%

16492-14656 (31148)

Both legs:

No$1,791.3120.7¢+$67.58

Yes$538.1977.9¢+$4.06

fraj0la

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$9.83

Record

64%

245-139 (384)

nigiri99CTR

Invested

$1,025.87

Value

$987.36

PnL

-$38.51

Record

46%

8349-9745 (18094)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$554.24

Value

$580.64

PnL

+$39.59

Record

50%

27743-27603 (55346)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,274.89

Value

$448.26

PnL

-$8.98

Record

48%

58721-62631 (121352)

Both legs:

Yes$338.7578.4¢-$171.71

No$111.6122.1¢+$162.73

NM-P

Yes

Invested

$385

Value

$390

PnL

+$5

Record

46%

1299-1520 (2819)

GC-P

Yes

Invested

$324.5

Value

$328.72

PnL

+$4.21

Record

47%

1324-1519 (2843)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$141.15

Value

$135.85

PnL

-$5.3

Record

52%

1149-1066 (2215)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$139.5

Value

$134.42

PnL

-$5.08

Record

54%

1178-1008 (2186)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$98.86

Value

$95.15

PnL

-$3.71

Record

51%

1084-1025 (2109)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$68.37

Value

$66.84

PnL

-$1.53

Record

51%

7644-7356 (15000)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$53.96

Value

$56.53

PnL

+$2.57

Record

50%

36318-35797 (72115)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$53.36

Value

$53.77

PnL

+$0.41

Record

58%

19232-14159 (33391)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$1.68

Value

$1.68

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

25470-25164 (50634)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$1.49

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

1134-1025 (2159)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

56h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

72% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (16 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.4%

21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$327.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

427.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.