Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Olympiakós SFP end in a draw?

11 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (41%) · Yes at 100¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 5

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 41%

Total Value

$14.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

72.8¢ → 100¢

+37% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 27 top traders (41%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares9,991

Combined PnL+$2.3K

No16 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares14,567

Combined PnL$-3.4K

Yes — 41%No — 59%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CoinTrick	Yesavg 99.9¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$1.67	98% 4291-105 (4396)
XW xwingboyCTR	Noavg 75¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$67.59	65% 322-173 (495)
LI LightParadox	Yesavg 63.7¢	$854.92	$1.3K	+$486.86	52% 1146-1041 (2187)
ER72SEN	Yesavg 98.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$8.28	69% 358-161 (519)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 70.2¢	$1.9K	$1.3K	-$658.07	50% 27765-27630 (55395)
RN1	Yesavg 32.6¢	$649.1	$1.3K	+$601.61	53% 60059-52427 (112486)
VE Venusian	Yesavg 54.5¢	$591.77	$1.1K	+$492.85	52% 1158-1077 (2235)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 38.6¢	$2.2K	$1.0K	$-1.2K	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
MA MadridTime	Yesavg 37.9¢	$264.47	$697.33	+$432.86	51% 1093-1042 (2135)
LI Limousin	Yesavg 35.3¢	$160.48	$442.82	+$282.34	54% 1189-1028 (2217)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 72.4¢	$346.59	$344.53	-$2.06	40% 1343-2035 (3378)
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 86.8¢	$372.19	$332.41	-$39.77	47% 11071-12407 (23478)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 72¢	$201.42	$201.42	+$0	39% 1338-2112 (3450)
SE sentrioCTR	Noavg 74¢	$141.8	$137.97	-$3.83	50% 25481-25189 (50670)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$29.18	$76.75	+$47.57	49% 14323-15001 (29324)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 72¢	$31.42	$31.42	+$0	53% 16517-14663 (31180)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Noavg 7.7¢	$42.06	$30.18	-$11.88	61% 14035-9040 (23075)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 75¢	$23.61	$22.68	-$0.93	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 2.4¢	$33.63	$18.68	-$14.95	51% 6277-6028 (12305)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100	Yesavg 83.7¢	$15.62	$15.95	+$0.33	42% 2367-3214 (5581)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Noavg 54.8¢	$94.03	$11.03	-$83.01	52% 14224-12997 (27221)
WA waierma<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$10.37	$10.37	+$0.01	—
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 34.7¢	$1.4K	$4.07	$-1.4K	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 73¢	$82.88	$3.67	+$3.05	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Noavg 1¢	$1.72	$0.86	-$0.86	47% 1160-1314 (2474)

CoinTrick

Yes

Invested

$3,344.9

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.67

Record

98%

4291-105 (4396)

xwingboyCTR

Invested

$1,710.49

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$67.59

Record

65%

322-173 (495)

LightParadox

Yes

Invested

$854.92

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$486.86

Record

52%

1146-1041 (2187)

ER72SEN

Yes

Invested

$1,290.23

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$8.28

Record

69%

358-161 (519)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$1,945.29

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$658.07

Record

50%

27765-27630 (55395)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$649.1

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$601.61

Record

53%

60059-52427 (112486)

Venusian

Yes

Invested

$591.77

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$492.85

Record

52%

1158-1077 (2235)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$2,204.1

Value

$1.0K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

MadridTime

Yes

Invested

$264.47

Value

$697.33

PnL

+$432.86

Record

51%

1093-1042 (2135)

Limousin

Yes

Invested

$160.48

Value

$442.82

PnL

+$282.34

Record

54%

1189-1028 (2217)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$346.59

Value

$344.53

PnL

-$2.06

Record

40%

1343-2035 (3378)

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$372.19

Value

$332.41

PnL

-$39.77

Record

47%

11071-12407 (23478)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$201.42

Value

$201.42

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

1338-2112 (3450)

sentrioCTR

Invested

$141.8

Value

$137.97

PnL

-$3.83

Record

50%

25481-25189 (50670)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.18

Value

$76.75

PnL

+$47.57

Record

49%

14323-15001 (29324)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$31.42

Value

$31.42

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

16517-14663 (31180)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Invested

$42.06

Value

$30.18

PnL

-$11.88

Record

61%

14035-9040 (23075)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$23.61

Value

$22.68

PnL

-$0.93

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$33.63

Value

$18.68

PnL

-$14.95

Record

51%

6277-6028 (12305)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.62

Value

$15.95

PnL

+$0.33

Record

42%

2367-3214 (5581)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Invested

$94.03

Value

$11.03

PnL

-$83.01

Record

52%

14224-12997 (27221)

waierma<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.37

Value

$10.37

PnL

+$0.01

Record

—

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$1,424.52

Value

$4.07

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$82.88

Value

$3.67

PnL

+$3.05

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Invested

$1.72

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$0.86

Record

47%

1160-1314 (2474)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 27 top traders (41%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.