Will AEK vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?

13 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (68%) · No at 89¢ · $318K held · ended Nov 4

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 68%

Total Value

$317.9K

Combined PnL

-$275.03

Smart Money Entry

89¢ → 89¢

+0% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 19 top traders (68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$316.3K

Total Shares354,390

Combined PnL+$35

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares14,615

Combined PnL-$310.03

No — 68%Yes — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

68% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 58% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Noavg 89¢	$267.0K	$267.0K	-$0	56% 6179-4951 (11130)
CA Cannae	Noavg 89.3¢	$26.7K	$26.6K	-$94.77	53% 16518-14663 (31181)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 88¢	$12.2K	$12.3K	+$97.2	71% 7122-2863 (9985)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 88.5¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$17.46	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 89¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$1.87	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
XW xwingboy	Noavg 89.5¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$11	65% 322-173 (495)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 12.5¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$213.46	52% 1162-1079 (2241)
GC GC-P	Noavg 87¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$26.11	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
NM NM-P	Noavg 86.9¢	$2.1K	$1.1K	+$6.88	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 90.5¢	$361.8	$356	-$5.8	51% 1793-1714 (3507)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 87¢	$121.8	$123.56	-$0.07	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.7¢	$94.73	$49.04	-$92.88	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 88.6¢	$44.93	$44.94	+$0.01	51% 7653-7369 (15022)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86¢	$21.97	$22.74	+$0.77	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
WA waiermaCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$20.88	$18.33	-$2.55	80% 75-19 (94)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 88¢	$7.33	$7.42	+$0.08	47% 11082-12418 (23500)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$1.48	$1.3	-$0.18	47% 497-566 (1063)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.7¢	$2.08	$1.22	-$0.86	33% 1147-2278 (3425)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$1.2	$1.1	-$0.1	52% 8584-7828 (16412)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Invested

$266,999.99

Value

$267.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

6179-4951 (11130)

Cannae

Invested

$26,715.97

Value

$26.6K

PnL

-$94.77

Record

53%

16518-14663 (31181)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$12,222.58

Value

$12.3K

PnL

+$97.2

Record

71%

7122-2863 (9985)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$3,275.54

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$17.46

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,013.62

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$1.87

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

xwingboy

Invested

$2,011

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$11

Record

65%

322-173 (495)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,750.14

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$213.46

Record

52%

1162-1079 (2241)

GC-P

Invested

$1,376.91

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$26.11

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

NM-P

Invested

$2,125.12

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$6.88

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$361.8

Value

$356

PnL

-$5.8

Record

51%

1793-1714 (3507)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$121.8

Value

$123.56

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.73

Value

$49.04

PnL

-$92.88

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$44.93

Value

$44.94

PnL

+$0.01

Record

51%

7653-7369 (15022)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$21.97

Value

$22.74

PnL

+$0.77

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

waiermaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.88

Value

$18.33

PnL

-$2.55

Record

80%

75-19 (94)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$7.33

Value

$7.42

PnL

+$0.08

Record

47%

11082-12418 (23500)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.48

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$0.18

Record

47%

497-566 (1063)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.08

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$0.86

Record

33%

1147-2278 (3425)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

8584-7828 (16412)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 19 top traders (68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

68% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 58% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.4%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.