Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-11-04?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 44¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 4

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$24.13

Smart Money Entry

43.7¢ → 43.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,136

Combined PnL-$45.14

No8 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares8,245

Combined PnL+$69.27

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

82h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Yesavg 57¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$52.62	67% 3649-1815 (5464)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 44¢	$388.63	$1.8K	+$50.65	51% 23811-22567 (46378)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 44.2¢	$865.86	$811.52	-$12.86	48% 57267-60865 (118132)
└ No leg	Noavg 44.2¢	$483.21	$469.85	-$12.86
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56¢	$341.67	$341.67	+$0
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 43.6¢	$624.28	$622.96	-$1.32	47% 1322-1513 (2835)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 43.4¢	$551.38	$546.38	-$5	46% 1298-1515 (2813)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 54.4¢	$315.27	$324.81	+$6.64	50% 20420-20739 (41159)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 43¢	$548.8	$269.61	+$16.23	58% 44906-32675 (77581)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Noavg 43¢	$238.65	$238.65	+$8.33	71% 7031-2815 (9846)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$20.54	$20.54	+$0.72	53% 16454-14621 (31075)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 44.5¢	$19.14	$18.48	-$0.66	58% 18975-13958 (32933)
IW iWasEnough<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$13.18	$13.79	+$0.61	51% 11725-11123 (22848)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$9.96	$10.15	+$0.18	64% 1876-1042 (2918)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$9.46	$9.46	+$0.33	51% 7458-7190 (14648)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.8	+$0.05	52% 8547-7785 (16332)

JAMJAMJAM4

Yes

Invested

$2,000.11

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$52.62

Record

67%

3649-1815 (5464)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$388.63

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$50.65

Record

51%

23811-22567 (46378)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$865.86

Value

$811.52

PnL

-$12.86

Record

48%

57267-60865 (118132)

Both legs:

No$483.2144.2¢-$12.86

Yes$341.6756¢+$0

GC-PCTR

Invested

$624.28

Value

$622.96

PnL

-$1.32

Record

47%

1322-1513 (2835)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$551.38

Value

$546.38

PnL

-$5

Record

46%

1298-1515 (2813)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$315.27

Value

$324.81

PnL

+$6.64

Record

50%

20420-20739 (41159)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$548.8

Value

$269.61

PnL

+$16.23

Record

58%

44906-32675 (77581)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Invested

$238.65

Value

$238.65

PnL

+$8.33

Record

71%

7031-2815 (9846)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$20.54

Value

$20.54

PnL

+$0.72

Record

53%

16454-14621 (31075)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$19.14

Value

$18.48

PnL

-$0.66

Record

58%

18975-13958 (32933)

iWasEnough<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.18

Value

$13.79

PnL

+$0.61

Record

51%

11725-11123 (22848)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.96

Value

$10.15

PnL

+$0.18

Record

64%

1876-1042 (2918)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$9.46

Value

$9.46

PnL

+$0.33

Record

51%

7458-7190 (14648)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

8547-7785 (16332)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

82h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.