Blue wave in 2026?

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 88¢ · $46K held · ends Jan 5, 2027

Yes88¢No12¢Ends Tue, Jan 5, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$46.3K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

85.3¢ → 88¢

+3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 88%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$46.1K

Total Shares52,433

Combined PnL+$1.3K

No6 traders

Total Value$131.22

Total Shares1,193

Combined PnL-$44.51

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

59 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JJo	Yesavg 87.3¢	$20.2K	$19.0K	+$263.12	66% 944-496 (1440)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	Yesavg 84.9¢	$16.0K	$16.5K	+$391.5	67% 751-378 (1129)
perfectnostalgia	Yesavg 86.7¢	$8.2K	$8.3K	+$71.89	55% 338-273 (611)
randomWalkingShrimp	Yesavg 56¢	$582.45	$915.2	+$327.55	77% 1204-366 (1570)
ZE zerosmart	Yesavg 70¢	$134.24	$809.59	+$161.4	48% 66-72 (138)
bernardbulletin	Yesavg 76¢	$208.92	$241.91	+$34.36	69% 987-450 (1437)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 82¢	$159.77	$125.96	+$4.5	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
65 65765757	Yesavg 88¢	$101	$101	-$0	79% 277-74 (351)
VO Votei14Voude22<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$93	$93	+$0	78% 342-99 (441)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$30	$55	-$1.95	59% 3430-2345 (5775)
LI linethCTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$15.28	$33.82	-$7.67	41% 245-350 (595)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$27.83	$11.78	-$16.06	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
TT tttt123CTR<$100	Noavg 32.9¢	$33.25	$11.12	-$20.11	72% 1535-585 (2120)
PU PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$11	$11	+$0.5	66% 955-482 (1437)
BeneGesseritVoice<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$9.62	$10.08	+$0.52	69% 1138-518 (1656)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$8.5	$8.5	+$0.77	39% 175-269 (444)

JJo

Yes

Invested

$20,209.66

Value

$19.0K

PnL

+$263.12

Record

66%

944-496 (1440)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA

Yes

Invested

$15,969.03

Value

$16.5K

PnL

+$391.5

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

perfectnostalgia

Yes

Invested

$8,187.65

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$71.89

Record

55%

338-273 (611)

randomWalkingShrimp

Yes

Invested

$582.45

Value

$915.2

PnL

+$327.55

Record

77%

1204-366 (1570)

zerosmart

Yes

Invested

$134.24

Value

$809.59

PnL

+$161.4

Record

48%

66-72 (138)

bernardbulletin

Yes

Invested

$208.92

Value

$241.91

PnL

+$34.36

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$159.77

Value

$125.96

PnL

+$4.5

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

65765757

Yes

Invested

$101

Value

$101

PnL

-$0

Record

79%

277-74 (351)

Votei14Voude22<$100

Yes

Invested

$93

Value

$93

PnL

+$0

Record

78%

342-99 (441)

shiifooCTR<$100

Invested

$30

Value

$55

PnL

-$1.95

Record

59%

3430-2345 (5775)

linethCTR<$100

Invested

$15.28

Value

$33.82

PnL

-$7.67

Record

41%

245-350 (595)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Invested

$27.83

Value

$11.78

PnL

-$16.06

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

tttt123CTR<$100

Invested

$33.25

Value

$11.12

PnL

-$20.11

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100

Invested

$11

Value

$11

PnL

+$0.5

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

BeneGesseritVoice<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.62

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$0.52

Record

69%

1138-518 (1656)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Invested

$8.5

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$0.77

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 88%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

59 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.