Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Texas?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.7¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

-$339.21

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 0.7¢

-2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares1,613,434

Combined PnL-$339.21

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$9.5K	$9.3K	-$206.68	44% 577-748 (1325)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$155.7K	$979.41	-$34.35	50% 1220-1231 (2451)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$78.12	$65	-$13.12	56% 15513-12122 (27635)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$58.45	$50	-$8.45	45% 2313-2837 (5150)
AN ancianoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$44.9	$38.87	-$6.03	52% 1154-1065 (2219)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$16.55	$13.77	-$2.78	17% 1022-4935 (5957)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$9.72	$5.6	-$66.75	35% 16909-31257 (48166)
CU CustomTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$3.86	$3.22	-$0.65	15% 118-669 (787)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$2.37	$1.97	-$0.4	24% 666-2082 (2748)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,536.16

Value

$9.3K

PnL

-$206.68

Record

44%

577-748 (1325)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$155,678.46

Value

$979.41

PnL

-$34.35

Record

50%

1220-1231 (2451)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.12

Value

$65

PnL

-$13.12

Record

56%

15513-12122 (27635)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.45

Value

$50

PnL

-$8.45

Record

45%

2313-2837 (5150)

ancianoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.9

Value

$38.87

PnL

-$6.03

Record

52%

1154-1065 (2219)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.55

Value

$13.77

PnL

-$2.78

Record

17%

1022-4935 (5957)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.72

Value

$5.6

PnL

-$66.75

Record

35%

16909-31257 (48166)

CustomTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.86

Value

$3.22

PnL

-$0.65

Record

15%

118-669 (787)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.37

Value

$1.97

PnL

-$0.4

Record

24%

666-2082 (2748)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.7%

0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5731.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

5831.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.