Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 4.3¢ · $71K held · ends Nov 3

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$71.1K

Combined PnL

$56.6K

Smart Money Entry

0.8¢ → 4.3¢

+422% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$68.9K

Total Shares1,522,006

Combined PnL+$56.6K

No4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,286

Combined PnL+$5.47

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$9.8K	$64.9K	+$55.1K	43% 561-738 (1299)
ET ethBELIVERCTR	Yesavg 3.5¢	$1.9K	$2.7K	+$566.96	40% 25-37 (62)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 3.4¢	$208.98	$1.3K	+$921.63	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
LI lissartter	Noavg 95.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0.3	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 95¢	$570	$574.8	+$3.3	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
BU BunCaCham	Noavg 95¢	$270.87	$272.38	+$1.51	97% 2582-68 (2650)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$84.94	$85.3	+$0.36	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$0.33	$0.5	+$0.12	78% 283-79 (362)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,824.66

Value

$64.9K

PnL

+$55.1K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

ethBELIVERCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,862.7

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$566.96

Record

40%

25-37 (62)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$208.98

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$921.63

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

lissartter

Invested

$1,253.57

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0.3

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$570

Value

$574.8

PnL

+$3.3

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

BunCaCham

Invested

$270.87

Value

$272.38

PnL

+$1.51

Record

97%

2582-68 (2650)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$84.94

Value

$85.3

PnL

+$0.36

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$0.12

Record

78%

283-79 (362)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.5%

4.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1717.93

Max Loss

-$100.00

1817.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.