Consensus PnL $304K · win rate 40% (23–34, n=57) · was PM monthly #446 · holds 15 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$304.2K
Record
23W / 34L
Win Rate
40.0%
of 57 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2101
Source
PM monthly #446
Trades
40
Markets
80
Volume
$7.9M
Top consensus positions
15 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 15 on the consensus side (47%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $168K · now 84¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $27K · now 65¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?No $6.7K · now 90¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No $5.1K · now 64¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No $3.6K · now 75¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (66% of 33)
- Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Yes $2.7K · now 5¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
- Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes $2.3K · now 3¢ · in at 2¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?No $1.6K · now 89¢ · in at 89¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
24 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 55¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where ethBELIVER's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 25% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 25%(won 100% of 6)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 100% of 6)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 100% of 8)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.